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Hi, dear traders!
According to the H1 chart, GBP/USD reversed downwards on Thursday and fell below the retracement level of 200.0% (1.3071). The pair remains below this level today - it can resume its downward movement towards 1.2980 within the next few trading days. It is the third attempt by GBP/USD to settle below 1.2980, and the odds of the pair falling below this level are increasing with every such attempt. The situation for the pound has not changed over the past 2 days, similar to the euro - GBP is likely to fall in the near future. There were not many events recently related to the pound sterling or the US dollar recently. Yesterday, US retail sales data were released. Sales increased by 0.5% month-over-month in March, slightly below expectations of economists. The number of initial jobless claims slightly exceeded forecasts, reaching 185,000. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index was higher than previously estimated.
Two out of three data releases turned out to be slightly worse than expected, while the other was somewhat better than expected. However, USD late on Thursday moved the same way it did on Wednesday. The US dollar advanced strongly on Wednesday, reversed downwards after the ECB meeting on Thursday, and reversed again upwards later on. Eventually, GBP/USD slowed down near 1,3071, with US data releases failing to influence traders. In international news, Finland and Sweden are ready to apply for NATO membership in summer of 2022 due to Russia's war against Ukraine, ending 80 years of their policy of neutrality. Russia, which started the "special military operation" in response to NATO encroaching on its borders, now faces the possibility of having NATO military bases near St. Petersburg. Putin's press secretary Peskov and former president Dmitry Medvedev have already made comments about both countries facing "serious consequences" for joining the alliance. Whether Russia would launch another preemptive strike before summer remains to be seen.
According to the H4 chart, the pair reversed upwards and settled above the descending trend line. GBP/USD returned to the retracement level of 76.4% (1.3044) due to the bearish CCI divergence. If the pair bounces off this level, it would rise towards the retracement level of 61.8% (1.3274). However, if GBP/USD settles below 1.3044, it would resume its downward movement towards 1.2860.
Commitments of Traders (COT) report:
During the last week covered by the report, the mood of Non-commercial traders did not change significantly. 5,249 Long positions and 6,937 Short positions were opened, indicating an increasingly bearish sentiment in the market. The total amount of open Long positions is currently twice the amount of Short ones, matching the current situation in the market. The pair is declining, and major market players are largely opening short positions. Geopolitical factors, COT reports, and technical analysis suggests GBP/USD will likely continue its fall.
US and UK economic calendar:
US - industrial production data (13-15 UTC).
There are no events in the UK, and the sole US data release is unlikely to influence traders.
Outlook for GBP/USD:
Traders are recommended to open short positions if the pair bounces off 1.3071 on the H1 chart, with 1.2980 being the target. Long positions can be opened if GBP/USD closes above 1.3071, targeting 1.3181.
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