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Hello, dear traders! According to the H1 chart, GBP/USD was volatile on Wednesday. Eventually, it managed to settle below 1.2272. The quote bounced off this level thrice in the past four days. The price is now moving to the 523.6% retracement level of 1.2146. A rebound from this level might lead to the strengthening of the pound. However, it would be unwise to go long during such a steep fall. The quote may well drop below 1.2146. Today, there was a strong fundamental background in the UK, with several important macro releases coming out. The British economy expanded by 0.8% in the first quarter, below market forecasts of 1%. On a monthly basis, GDP contracted by 0.1%. Industrial production dropped by 0.2% m/m and rose by 0.7% y/y. In this light, the pound had every reason to go down today. However, if taking a closer look at the chart, it would become clear that the fall started yesterday and continued today. Generally speaking, the price went down long before the release of macro statistics in the UK. It is possible to assume that some large traders were aware of macro results in advance. However, in that case, statistics lose all meaning for small traders because the movement is already over when it comes out. Anyway, the market is now in a rather complex and mixed situation. If not for these macro results, the conclusion would be the same as for the euro: GBP falls steeply although there is hardly any reason for it to extend the bear run. Still, there are some occasional causes for a plunge.
In particular, the Bank of England is now considering the possibility of taking a break from raising interest rates. Such speculation is enough for the pound to nosedive again.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated below the 127.2% retracement level of 1.2250. Thus, the bear run might extend to 1.1980. Meanwhile, the MACD indicates there is an impending bullish divergence. It can help the pair somewhat advance. However, the previous bullish divergence allowed GBP to rise by just 130 points.
Commitments of Traders (COT):
The sentiment of non-commercial traders dramatically changed last week. The number of long positions decreased by 6,900 and short ones dropped by 2,708. Overall, bearish sentiment grew. The number of long positions is now 3 times higher than that of short ones (107,349/33,536). Therefore, the general sentiment of large traders turned more bullish. The sell-off of the pound continues. In this light, GBP is likely to remain bearish for the next few weeks. However, such a wide gap between the number of Longs and Shorts may signal an imminent trend reversal in the market. It is also possible that the pound ends its prolonged bear move this week.
Macro events in the United States and the United Kingdom:
United Kingdom: GDP Growth Rate, Industrial Production (06-00 UTC).United States: Initial Jobless Claims (12-30 UTC).
On Thursday, the UK has already seen the release of all the reports scheduled for the day. The pound has been bearish all day long. The macroeconomic calendar in the US contains no important events. Thus, the fundamental background is unlikely to somehow affect the market today.
Outlook for GBP/USD:
Short positions could be opened with the target at 1.2146 if the price closes below 1.3181. Long positions should be postponed today as the downtrend has resumed.
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