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Hello, dear traders!
Yesterday was a calm trading day in the market, which is common for Mondays. No fundamentals had no effect on the market either. There were no drivers for a strong price movement or they have already been priced in by market participants. The macroeconomic calendar was also completely empty. Likewise, no macro events are expected today. At the same time, two reports may somewhat affect the EUR/USD pair today. The first one has already come out. These are Germany's factory orders data, which declined by 2.7%, missing forecasts of a 0.3% rise.
Taking into account such disappointing results from Europe's locomotive, we can hardly expect better figures from other eurozone countries. No wonder, the ECB has adopted a mixed stance on inflation. The regulator's main tool against persistent inflation is rate hikes. However, raising rates whenever the economy is weak means driving it into a recession. Still, although factory orders are significant data, it does not mean these are the most important figures. US trade balance will be another important report to pay attention to today.
Daily
Yesterday, the price rose to 1.0750, encountered strong resistance, and reversed downward. The day closed below the MA 50 and the red Tenkan line of the Ichimoku indicator. However, only one daily candlestick has closed below the Tenkan line so far, which means that it is too early to talk about a true breakout of the MA 50 and the Tenkan line. The quote keeps hovering around the important technical level of 1.0700, closing either above or below the mark. The pair has been like that for quite a long time. As for targets on the daily chart, in the case of growth, they stand at yesterday's high of 1.0750 and 1.0766, in line with the lower limit of the Ichimoku cloud. The nearest target for bears is seen at the support of 1.0628 (the low of June 1st).
H4
On the 4-hour chart of EUR/USD, the black EMA 89 and orange EMA 200 keep the price from falling further. At this point, it is still unclear for how long they will be able to do this. However, risky buying could be considered at current prices. In such a case, the target is seen at 1.0720, in line with EMA 50, where the price may encounter strong resistance. Short positions could be opened there if a bearish candlestick pattern is formed. In general, the pair's movement seems to be an attempt to consolidate before a trend emerges. The ECB's interest rate decision and President Lagarde's press conference on Thursday may become the driving force for the euro.
Have a nice trading day!
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