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The EUR/USD pair continued its downward movement on Monday, which was quite strong. We expected that Monday might turn out to be a half-day, but in practice the market showed that it did not intend to take a break in selling the euro. Thus, even without any fundamental or macroeconomic background, the euro continued to fall all day and went far below price parity with the dollar and below the previous local and 20-year lows. We have repeatedly said that the key factors for the euro's decline and the dollar's growth have long remained unchanged. Therefore, it is still very difficult to expect euro growth in the medium term now. The pair corrected by the usual 400 points, after which it had every reason to resume the downward trend. Which, in fact, it did. Therefore, we cannot draw new conclusions right now. The euro can still fall almost indefinitely in time.
There were only two trading signals on Monday. It should be noted right away that there are very few levels at the current price values, since the price has not been here for more than 20 years. What levels can there be? Since the downward trend is very strong, the Ichimoku indicator lines are located much higher than the price and also do not take any part in forming trading signals. As a result, the first buy signal was formed during the rebound from the level of 1.0000 and turned out to be false. According to it, traders received about 20 points of loss. On the other hand, the second sell signal turned out to be strong, and the price went down 50-60 points. This is how much profit traders could get on the second deal, which had to be closed manually.
The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports on the euro in the past few months clearly reflect what is happening in the euro/dollar pair. They showed an openly bullish mood of commercial players for most of 2022, but at the same time, the euro fell steadily at the same time. At this time, the situation is different, but it is NOT in favor of the euro. If earlier the mood was bullish and the euro was falling, now the mood is bearish and... the euro is also falling. Therefore, for the time being, we do not see any grounds for the euro's growth, because the vast majority of factors remain against it. During the reporting week, the number of long positions in the non-commercial group decreased by 800, while the number of shorts increased by 7,300. Accordingly, the net position decreased by about 6,500 contracts. After several weeks of weak growth, the decline in this indicator resumed, and the mood of major players remains bearish. From our point of view, this fact very eloquently indicates that at this time even commercial traders still do not believe in the euro. The number of long positions is lower than the number of short positions for non-commercial traders by 43,000. Therefore, we can state that not only does the demand for the US dollar remain high, but that the demand for the euro is quite low. The fact that major players are in no hurry to buy the euro may lead to a new, even greater fall. The euro has not been able to show even a tangible correction over the past six months or a year, not to mention something more. The highest upward correction was about 400 points.
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The pair continues a strong downward movement on the hourly timeframe. We believe that globally everything is going according to plan, as the euro has corrected up by 400 points, so now there are sufficient technical grounds for the continuation of the downward trend. The descending trend line clearly indicates what the trend is now, so there is no reason to consider buying the pair. We highlight the following levels for trading on Tuesday - 1.0000, 1.0072, 1.0124, 1.0195, 1.0269, as well as Senkou Span B (1.0245) and Kijun-sen (1.0182). There is not a single level below the 1.0000 level, so there is simply nothing to trade there. Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also secondary support and resistance levels, but no signals are formed near them. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthrough" extreme levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price has gone in the right direction for 15 points. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. The European Union and the United States will publish business activity indices in the services and manufacturing sectors on August 23, which are unlikely to be needed by traders now - they already know what to do. The main problem is that there are no levels below 1.0000.
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
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