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The EUR/USD pair continued to trade rather indistinctly for most of Tuesday. A good growth only followed during the US session, which, however, quickly ended at the nearest line of the Ichimoku Senkou Span B indicator. Thus, the price continues to remain below the Ichimoku lines, and therefore the downward trend persists, despite the pair's exit from the downward channel. This channel was quite narrow, and its angle of inclination was too strong. Therefore, most likely, it will be rebuilt when a new price peak is formed. No important statistics were published either in the US or in the European Union on Tuesday, so traders had nothing to react to during the day. We still believe that the probability of the pair continuing to fall is much higher than the probability of growth. Nevertheless, overcoming the lines of the Ichimoku indicator may provoke a new round of growth by 200-300 points.
No trading signals were formed on Tuesday. The pair only worked out the Senkou Span B line and rebounded from it by the end of the trading day, which could be interpreted as a sell signal, but in any case it formed too late to work it out. Formally, the downward movement can now continue both at night and in the morning, but we still do not recommend leaving positions open overnight when trading within the day.
The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports in 2022 can be entered into a textbook as an example. For half of the year, they showed a blatant bullish mood of commercial players, but at the same time, the euro fell steadily. Then for several months they showed a bearish mood, and the euro also fell steadily. Now the net position of non-commercial traders is bullish again, and the euro continues to fall. This happens, as we have already said, due to the fact that the demand for the US dollar remains very high amid a difficult geopolitical situation in the world. Therefore, even if the demand for the euro is rising, the high demand for the dollar does not allow the euro itself to grow. During the reporting week, the number of long positions for the non-commercial group decreased by 9,300, and the number of shorts by 19,200. Accordingly, the net position grew by about 9,900 contracts. This fact is not of particular importance, since the euro still remains "at the bottom". At this time, commercial traders still prefer the euro to the dollar. The number of longs is higher than the number of shorts for non-commercial traders by 45,000, but the euro cannot derive any dividends from this. Thus, the net position of the non-commercial group can continue to grow further, this does not change anything. Even if you pay attention to the total number of longs and shorts, their values are approximately the same, but the euro is still falling. Thus, it is necessary to wait for changes in the geopolitical and/or fundamental background in order for something to change in the currency market.
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. October 12. Sweden refuses to provide Russia with the results of the investigation into the Nord Stream explosions.
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The downward trend is formally canceled on the hourly timeframe, but in practice, one or two upward corrections are likely to follow, after which the downward movement will resume, and the downward channel will take on a wider form. So far, we do not see any reason to expect a strong growth from the euro. We highlight the following levels for trading on Wednesday - 0.9553, 0.9747, 0.9844, 0.9945, 1.0019, 1.0072, as well as Senkou Span B (0.9767) and Kijun-sen (0 .9810). Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also secondary support and resistance levels, but no signals are formed near them. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthrough" extreme levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price has gone in the right direction for 15 points. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. The European Union will publish a far from the most important report on industrial production, which is unlikely to cause a strong market reaction. European Central bank President Christine Lagarde's speech will be much more interesting. Recall that the ECB plans to raise rates by at least 0.75% again next month. The euro really needs hawkish rhetoric to show at least some growth. There will be nothing interesting in America today.
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
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