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Macro data published last week showed that inflation in the world, including in its most economically developed regions, continues to grow. Thus, according to the data presented, annual consumer inflation in the UK has reached a new multi-year high of 10.1%, in the eurozone - 9.9%, in Canada - 6.9%. The CPI consumer price index for the United States, published a week earlier, also indicated a high inflation rate of 8.2% (in annual terms).
Meanwhile, high geopolitical tensions remain in the world, the western political world is being shaken by intra-party conflicts, while elections of a new prime minister are expected in the UK next week. Among the features of trading in the foreign exchange market, I would like to note that the USD/JPY pair took the level of 150.00, which, as market participants believed, the Bank of Japan would protect. However, so far this is not happening – USD/JPY is moving higher to the upside, and the yen continues to weaken rapidly.
Next week, meetings of the three largest world central banks will take place at once - Canada, the eurozone, Japan, and entire blocks of the most important European macro statistics, as well as on China and the USA, will be published. Market participants will also pay attention to the release of important macro statistics for Australia, Germany, and the UK. Thus, the next week promises to be extremely volatile, with a lot of trading opportunities.
As for the dollar, its DXY index maintains positive dynamics and continues to remain in the zone of 20-year highs, not far from the local high of 114.74 reached last month. Surpassing this resistance level will open the way for DXY towards 120.121.00, the 2001 highs.
This S&P Global report is an analysis of a survey of 800 purchasing managers, during which respondents are asked to assess the relative level of business conditions, including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries and inventories. Since purchasing managers have, perhaps, the most up-to-date information about the situation in the company, this is an important indicator of the state of the German economy as a whole. This sector of the economy forms a significant part of Germany's GDP. A result above 50 is seen as positive and strengthens the EUR, below 50 as negative for the euro. Data worse than the forecast and/or the previous value will have a negative impact on the euro.
Previous values: 47.8, 49.1, 49.3, 52.0, 54.8, 54.6, 56.9, 58.4, 59.8, 57.4, 57.4, 57.8, 58.4, 62.6.
Forecast for October: 48.0.
The level of influence on the markets (pre-release) is high.
The PMI Business Activity index in the eurozone manufacturing sector (from S&P Global) is an important indicator of the state of the entire European economy. A result above 50 is seen as positive and strengthens the EUR, below 50 as negative for the euro. Data worse than the forecast and/or the previous value will have a negative impact on the euro. Previous values: 48.1, 48.9, 49.8, 52.1, 54.6, 56.5, 58.2.
Forecast for October: 48.1.
The level of influence on the markets (pre-release) is high.
The PMI business Activity index in the UK manufacturing sector (from S&P Global) is an important indicator of the state of the British economy. If the data turns out to be worse than the forecast and the previous value, then the pound is likely to decline sharply in the short term. The data is better than the forecast and the previous value will have a positive impact on the pound. At the same time, a result above 50 is seen as positive and strengthens GBP, below 50 as negative for GBP.
Previous values: 48.4, 47.3, 52.1, 52.8, 54.6, 55.8, 55.2, 58.0, 57.3.
The level of influence on the markets (pre-release) is high.
The PMI Business Activity Index in the UK services sector (S&P Global) is an important indicator of the state of the British economy. The service sector employs most of the working-age population of the UK, and it accounts for about 75% of GDP. The most important part of the service sector is still financial services. If the data turns out to be worse than the forecast and the previous value, then the pound is likely to decline sharply in the short term. The data is better than the forecast and the previous value will have a positive impact on the pound. At the same time, a result above 50 is seen as positive and strengthens GBP, below 50 as negative for GBP.
Previous values: 50.0, 50.9, 52.6, 54.3, 53.4, 58.9, 62.6, 60.5, 54.1 ( in January 2022).
Forecast for October: 49.6.
The level of influence on the markets (pre-release) is high.
The monthly S&P Global report will release (among other data) a composite PMI index and PMI indices in the manufacturing sector and in the services sector of the US economy, which are an important indicator of the state of these sectors and the US economy as a whole. A result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the USD, below 50 is considered negative for the US dollar. The data above the value of 50 indicate an acceleration of activity, which has a positive effect on the quotes of the national currency. If the indicator falls below the forecast and, especially, below the value of 50, the dollar may sharply weaken in the short term.
Previous values of the PMI indicator:
The level of market impact is high, although lower than the similar report from the ISM (American Institute of Supply Management)
Report by the Conference Board with the results of a survey of about 3,000 American households, during which respondents are asked to assess the level of current, future economic conditions and the overall economic situation in the United States. The confidence of American consumers in the economic development of the country and in the stability of their economic situation is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a large part of overall economic activity. A high level of consumer confidence indicates growth in the economy, while a low level indicates stagnation. The previous value of the indicator is 108.0. An increase in the indicator will strengthen the USD, and a decrease in the value will weaken the dollar.
The level of influence on the markets is medium to high.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) determines the change in prices in a certain basket of goods and services for a given period, being a key indicator for assessing inflation and changes in consumer preferences. The assessment of the inflation rate is important for the management of the central bank when determining the parameters of the current monetary policy. The indicator below the forecast/previous value may provoke a weakening of the AUD, since low inflation will force the RBA leaders to adhere to a soft monetary policy course. Conversely, the growth of inflation and its high level will put pressure on the RBA to tighten its monetary policy, which in normal economic conditions is assessed as a positive factor for the national currency.
Previous values of the indicator: +1.8% (+6.1% in annual terms) in the 2nd quarter of 2022, +2.1% (+5.1% in annual terms) in the 1st quarter of 2022, +1.3% (+3.5% in annual terms) in the 4th quarter, +0.8% (+3.0% YoY) in the 3rd quarter, +0.8% (+3.8% YoY) in the 2nd quarter, +0.6% (+1.1% YoY) in the 1st quarter of 2021.
Forecast for the 3rd quarter of 2022: +1.5% (+6.9% in annual terms).
The level of influence on the markets is high.
Published by the RBA and the Australian Bureau of Statistics. It reflects the dynamics of retail prices of goods and services included in the consumer basket. The simple truncated average method takes into account the weighted average core, the central 70% of the index components. Previous index values: +1.5% (+4.9% YoY) in the 2nd quarter of 2022, +1.4% (+3.7% YoY) in the 1st quarter of 2022, +1.0% (+2.6% YoY) in the 4th quarter, +0.7% (+2.1% YoY) in the 3rd quarter, +0.5% (+1.6% YoY) in the 2nd quarter, +0.3% (+1.1% YoY) in the 1st quarter of 2021.
Forecast for the 3rd quarter of 2022: +2.0% (+5.5% in annual terms).
The level of influence on the markets is high.
China's National Bureau of Statistics is to release its quarterly GDP report, which is the broadest measure of economic activity and a major indicator of the health of the economy. High GDP figures will have a positive impact on the Chinese yuan quotes, and, conversely, a weak GDP report will have a negative impact on the CNY.
The dynamics of China's GDP is reflected not only in the dynamics of the Chinese yuan, but also in the dynamics of the world, primarily Asian stock indices, as well as on quotes of commodity currencies such as the New Zealand and Australian dollars. China is the largest trade and economic partner of Australia and New Zealand and the buyer of raw materials from these countries.
Therefore, positive macro statistics from China may also have a positive impact on the quotes of these commodity currencies, although recent data from China indicate a slowdown in the world's largest economy, and this is a negative factor for stock markets and commodity currency quotes.
Previous Chinese GDP: -2.6% (+0.4% YoY) in Q2, +1.3% (+4.8% YoY) in Q1 2022, + 1.6% (+4.0% YoY) in Q4, +0.2% (+4.9% YoY) in Q3, +1.3% (+7, 9% YoY) in Q2, +0.6% (+18.3% YoY) in Q1 2021.
The level of influence on the markets is medium to high.
The Retail Sales Level Index is released monthly by China's National Bureau of Statistics and evaluates the total volume of retail sales and cash generated. It is the main indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. It is also considered an indicator of consumer confidence and reflects the state of the retail sector in the short term.
The growth of the index is usually a positive factor for the CNY; a decrease in the indicator will negatively affect the CNY.
Previous index values (in annual terms) +5.4%, -6.7%, -11.1, -3.5, +6.7 (in February 2022) after +8% growth in the last months of 2019 year and falling by -20.5% in February 2020).
The data speaks of the uneven recovery of this sector of the Chinese economy after a strong fall in February-March 2020. If the data turns out to be weaker than the forecast and/or previous values, then the CNY may weaken sharply.
The level of influence on the markets is medium to high.
The level of interest rates is the most important factor in assessing the value of a currency. Most other economic indicators are only looked at by investors to predict how rates will move in the future.
Inflation in the country accelerated to almost a 40-year high (in February 2022, consumer prices in Canada rose at an annualized rate of 5.7% after rising by 5.1% in January, reaching a 30-year high, and in May - already to 7.7%). This is the highest figure since March 1983!
The Bank of Canada estimates that the neutral level of the interest rate, at which it does not stimulate or slow down economic activity, is 2.5%.
The current level of the interest rate is 3.25%. The Bank of Canada is widely expected to raise interest rates again at this meeting (by 0.50% or even 0.75%).
In an accompanying statement, Bank of Canada officials will explain the decision and possibly share plans for the monetary policy outlook.
The tough tone of this statement will cause the Canadian dollar to strengthen. The propensity of the bank's leaders to carry out a soft policy may provoke a weakening of the Canadian dollar.
The level of influence on the markets is high.
The press conference consists of two parts - first the prepared statement is read out, then the conference is open for press questions. This is one of the main methods that the Bank of Canada uses to communicate with market participants on monetary policy issues, also giving hints about future monetary policy. It examines in detail the factors that influenced the decision of the bank's management on the interest rate.
During the press conference, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will explain the bank's position and assess the current economic situation in the country. If the tone of his speech is tough on the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada, then the Canadian dollar will strengthen in the foreign exchange market. If Macklem speaks in favor of a soft monetary policy, the Canadian currency will decline. In any case, high volatility in CAD quotes is expected during his speech.
The level of influence on the markets is high.
The consequences of Brexit and the coronavirus pandemic, due to which European countries were forced to impose strict quarantine restrictions that negatively affected economic activity, trade conflicts, factors of political instability in Europe are the main threats to the European economy. A new factor of instability in Europe is the military conflict in Ukraine, where Russia is conducting a special military operation. According to ECB economists, this military conflict can reduce the eurozone's GDP by 0.3%-0.4%, and in the worst-case scenario, GDP will decrease by almost 1%. However, some of the economists believe that these are modest forecasts. The situation could be much more serious.
Amid the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict, which provoked a sharp increase in energy and food prices, inflation in Europe has accelerated sharply, and economists expect it to grow further in the coming months, as energy prices continue to rise, while the European Union imposes new restrictions on the Russian economy. The consumer price index (CPI) for the eurozone rose by +8.1% in May (in annual terms), which was higher than the forecast for growth of +7.7% and the previous value of +7.4%.
In June, consumer price growth accelerated to +8.6% (in annual terms), and in September to +9.9%.
Thus, inflation in the eurozone is accelerating, updating record highs and forcing ECB leaders to accelerate decision-making to curb it.
The focus of the EU's foreign economic policy on the refusal of Russian energy carriers, combined with high inflation and problems in supply chains, will provoke a recession in the eurozone, economists say. And now the ECB is in a difficult situation: to curb accelerating inflation without harming the recovery of the European economy.
And yet, according to ECB President Christine Lagarde, the central bank may raise its key interest rate again in order to reduce the risks of record high inflation rates and ease growing concerns about the weakness of the euro. It is expected that following the results of this meeting, the key interest rate and the ECB deposit rate for commercial banks will be raised by 0.5%.
But there are other forecasts both in one direction and in the other, or, for example, that interest rates will be increased by 0.25% or 0.75%.
It is also necessary to be prepared for an interest rate increase at the next ECB meetings. Perhaps this will also be mentioned in the accompanying statements of the ECB leaders.
The level of influence on the markets is high.
Durable goods are defined as solid products with an expected service life of more than three years, such as cars, computers, household appliances, airplanes and imply large investments in their production.
This leading indicator determines the change in the total value of new orders for the supply of durable goods placed with manufacturers. Growing orders for the supply of this category of goods signal that manufacturers will increase their activity as orders are fulfilled.
Capital goods are durable goods used for the production of durable goods and services. Goods produced in the defense and aviation sectors of the American economy are not included in this indicator.
A high result strengthens the USD, a decrease in the indicator has a negative effect on the USD. Data worse than the previous value and/or forecast will also have a negative impact on dollar quotes, while data better than the forecast will have a positive impact on the dollar.
Previous values of the "durable goods orders" indicator: -0.2% in August, -0.1% in July, +2.2% in June, +0.8% in May, +0.4% in April, +0.6% in March, -1.7% in February, +1.6% in January.
Previous values of the indicator "orders for capital goods excluding defense and aviation": +1.3% in August, +0.3% in July, +0.9% in June, +0.6% in May, +0.3% in April, +1.1% in March, -0.3% in February, +1.3% in January.
The level of influence on the markets is high.
This indicator (GDP) is the main indicator of the state of the American economy, and along with data on the labor market and inflation, GDP data are key for the country's central bank in determining the parameters of its monetary policy.
A strong result strengthens the US dollar; a weak GDP report negatively affects the US dollar.
There are three versions of GDP released at monthly intervals - Preliminary, Updated and Final. The pre-release is the earliest and has the greatest impact on the market. The final release has less impact, especially if it coincides with the forecast.
Previous values of the indicator (in annual terms): -0.6%, -1.6%, +6.9%, +2.3%, +6.7%, +6.3% ( in the 1st quarter of 2021).
Forecast for the 3rd quarter of 2022 (preliminary): +2.0%.
The level of influence on the markets is high.
The rate of inflation (apart from the state of the labor market and GDP) is important to the Fed in setting the parameters of its monetary policy. Rising prices put pressure on the central bank to tighten its policies and raise interest rates.
Higher-than-expected price index (PCE) readings could push the US dollar higher as it hints at a possible hawkish shift in the Fed's forecasts, and vice versa.
Previous values: +4.7% (Q2 2022), +5.2% (Q1 2022), 5.0% (Q4 2021), +4.6% (Q3), +6.1% (Q2), +2.7% (Q1 2021).
The level of influence on the markets is medium to high.
At the same time, the US Department of Labor will publish a weekly report on the state of the US labor market with data on the number of primary and secondary claims for unemployment benefits. The state of the labor market (together with data on GDP and inflation) is a key indicator for the Fed in determining the parameters of its monetary policy.
The result is higher than expected and the growth of the indicator indicates the weakness of the labor market, which negatively affects the US dollar. The drop in the indicator and its low value is a sign of the recovery of the labor market and may have a short-term positive impact on the USD.
Initial and re-claims are expected to remain at pre-coronavirus lows, which is also positive for the dollar, indicating the stability of the US labor market.
Previous (weekly) figures for initial jobless claims: 214,000, 219,000, 190,000, 209,000, 208,000, 218,000, 228,000, 237,000, 245,000 , 252,000, 248,000, 254,000, 261,000, 244,000, 235,000, 231,000, 232,000, 202,000, 211,000
Previous (weekly) values for repeated claims for unemployment benefits: 1,385,000, 1,361,000, 1,346,000, 1,376,000, 1,401,000, 1,401,000, 1,437,000, 1,412,000, 1,434,000, 1,430,000, 1,420,000, 1,368,000, 1,384,000, 1,333,000, 1,372,000, 1,324,000, 1,331,000, 1,309,000, 1,309,000
The level of influence on the markets is average.
During the press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde will explain the central bank's decision on rates and likely outline the prospects for the central bank's monetary policy in the coming months. Recently, the leadership of the ECB has been increasingly signaling the need for further tightening of monetary policy, which remains one of the softest (together with the BOJ and the Swiss National Bank) among the world's largest central banks.
If Lagarde again gives hawkish signals, then the euro may strengthen sharply. The soft tone of her statements will have a negative impact on the euro.
The level of influence on the markets is high.
The level of interest rates is the most important factor in assessing the value of a currency. Most other economic indicators are only looked at by investors to predict how rates will move in the future.
The BOJ is pursuing an extra-soft monetary policy, keeping the main interest rate in negative territory. Most likely, the rate will remain at the same level of -0.1%. At the time of the announcement of the interest rate decision, volatility in the quotes of the yen and in the Asian financial market could rise sharply if the BOJ makes an unexpected decision.
During the press conference, BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will comment on the central bank's monetary policy. As Kuroda has repeatedly stated earlier, "it is appropriate for Japan to patiently continue the current loose monetary policy."
The level of influence on the markets is high.
During the press conference, the head of the BOJ Kuroda will give comments on the bank's monetary policy. Markets usually react noticeably to Kuroda's speeches, especially if he touches on the topic of monetary policy. If he does not touch on this issue, then the reaction to his speech will be weak.
The level of influence on the markets is high.
The German Statistical Office will publish a report with preliminary data on the country's GDP for the 3rd quarter. There are two versions of the quarterly GDP, published at intervals of about 10 days, - Preliminary and Final (final release). The pre-release is the earliest and therefore tends to have the greatest impact on the markets. This report reflects the overall economic performance of Germany, whose economy is the locomotive of the entire European economy, and has a significant impact on the ECB's monetary policy decision.
GDP growth means an improvement in economic conditions, which makes it possible (with a corresponding increase in inflation) to tighten monetary policy, which, in turn, usually has a positive effect on the quotes of the national currency.
The release of this report usually causes an increase in volatility in EUR quotes. It is likely that the report with preliminary data on German GDP for the 3rd quarter will come out with positive indicators. Data worse than the forecast/previous values will negatively affect EUR quotes.
Previous values: +0.1%, +0.6%, +0.3%, +2.2%, +2.2%, -0.1% ( in the 1st quarter of 2021).
Forecast for the 3rd quarter of 2022: +0.4%.
The level of influence on the markets is from medium to high.
Consumer prices account for most of the overall inflation. In normal economic conditions, rising prices force the country's central bank to raise interest rates to avoid excessive inflation (above the target level of the central bank). One of the dangerous periods of the economy is stagflation. This is rising inflation with a slowing economy. In this situation, the central bank should act very carefully so as not to harm the recovery of economic growth.
The index (CPI) is published by the EU Statistics Office, is an indicator for assessing inflation and is used by the ECB Governing Council to assess the level of price stability. Usually, a positive result strengthens the EUR, a negative one weakens it.
The growth of the indicator is a positive factor for the national currency (under normal conditions). Data worse than the previous value and/or forecast will have a negative impact on the euro.
Previous indicator values: +10.9% in September, +8.8% in August, +8.5% in July, +8.2% in June, +8.7% in May, +7.8% in April, +7.6% in March, +5.5% in February, +5.1% in January 2022 (in annual terms).
Forecast for October: +11.5% (preliminary estimate).
The level of influence on the markets is from medium to high.
The annual core PCE price Index (excluding volatile food and energy prices) is the main inflation indicator that Fed FOMC officials use as the main inflation indicator.
The level of inflation (in addition to the state of the labor market and GDP) is important for the Fed in determining the parameters of its monetary policy. Rising prices put pressure on the central bank to tighten its policy and raise interest rates.
The values of the base price index (PCE) exceeding the forecast may push the US dollar up, as this will hint at a possible hawkish shift in the Fed's forecasts, and vice versa.
Previous values: +4.9% (in annual terms), +4.7%, +4.8%, +4.7%, +4.9%, +5.2%, +5.3%, +5.2% ( in January 2022).
The level of influence on the markets is from medium to high.
Statistics Canada is to publish its monthly GDP report, which is the broadest measure of economic activity and a major indicator of the health of the economy. High GDP figures will have a positive impact on the CAD quotes, and, conversely, a weak GDP report will have a negative impact on the CAD.
Despite a possible relative decline, the data suggests that the Canadian economy continues to recover after its strong fall in early 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic (in the 1st quarter of 2020, Canada's GDP fell by -8.6%, and in the 2nd - by -44.2%). Better-than-expected data will also have a positive impact on CAD.
Previous values: +0.1%, +0.1%, 0%, +0.3%, +0.7%, +0.9%, +0.2% (in January 2022).
The level of influence on the markets is from low to medium.
This index is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. It also reflects the confidence of American consumers in the economic development of the country. A high level indicates growth in the economy, while a low level indicates stagnation. Data worse than previous values and/or forecast may have a negative impact on the dollar in the short term. The growth of the indicator will strengthen the USD.
Previous indicator values: 58.6, 58.2, 51.5, 50.0, 58.4, 65.2, 59.4, 62.8, 67.2 in January 2022.
The preliminary score was: 59.8.
The level of influence on the markets (final release) is medium.
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