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The US dollar advanced at the beginning of today's European session. During the first hour of the session the US dollar index gained 19 points, moving into positive territory on the daily chart. However, the DXY's later performance shows that US dollar bulls are not yet ready to finally take control of the situation. USD went down once again – at the moment of writing, DXY futures were trading near 106.28, several points below today's opening price. At the same time, according to the DXY daily chart, we can see that USD bears are getting weaker as well. DXY futures traded in a fairly narrow range between 106.00 and 107.00 for the fifth day in a row. Both bulls and bears need new news or macroeconomic data, and so far there has been none.
Today there are no important US macroeconomic data releases on the economic calendar. If traders do not take profits from short USD positions during the American trading session, which will push DXY up, the index will most likely finish this trading day close to its current levels.
The next trading week will be shortened due to the Thanksgiving Day in the USA and the beginning of the Christmas holiday season.
The People's Bank of China will release its interest rate decision on Monday at 01:15 GMT followed by RBA governor Philip Lowe's speech on Tuesday (07:00). These events should trigger increased volatility of the Australian dollar, especially if Lowe makes unexpected announcements regarding the RBA's monetary policy.
Earlier this month during the RBA policy meeting, the central bank's board agreed to raise the interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.85%, the highest level in nine years. Nevertheless, RBA Governor Philip Lowe stated after the meeting that the board considered it appropriate to hike interest rates at a slower pace.
At the same time, the RBA revised upward its inflation forecast and stressed the need for further gradual tightening. Currently, the regulator predicts that CPI will hit 8.0% by the end of 2022, above 7.75% forecasted earlier.
The Australian dollar weakened after the meeting, and AUD/USD dropped below 0.6300.
Uncertain macroeconomic statistics data are putting additional pressure on AUD. The AiG manufacturing index showed a decline from 50.2 to 49.6 in October while building permits decreased by 5.8%, below expectations of a 7.0% decline. Home loans declined for the fourth consecutive month, falling this time by 9.3%, the worst drop since mid-2020. Real estate investment fell by 6.0%. The Australian real estate sector is under pressure from the ongoing economic crisis and the RBA's rate hikes. As one of the main sectors in the Australian economy, it is a significant constraint on RBA policymakers, who are still forced to tighten monetary policy in the face of rising prices. However, according to the RBA's statement after the November meeting, rising interest rates and higher inflation are putting pressure on many households' budgets, even though the Central Bank remains determined to return inflation to target levels.
This means the RBA seems set to continue raising interest rates. However, the size and timing of future rate hikes will be determined by the incoming data and the board's assessment of the outlook for inflation and the labor market.
If the economy and the labor market deteriorate, then the RBA could slow the pace of its interest rate hikes even further. At the same time, rising inflation is likely to deter the RBA's policymakers from easing monetary policy.
All this means that both investors, who follow performance of AUD and the RBA's board need more information about the economic situation and inflation trends in the country.
In the meantime, the Australian dollar cross pairs remain vulnerable. However, AUD is growing against the US dollar mainly due to the current weakness of its US counterpart.
At the moment of writing, AUD/USD is trading near 0.6710, in the zone of short-term bull and long-term bear markets. This indicates that the pair is undergoing an upward correction while remaining in the downtrend zone, below the key resistance levels of 0.6760, 0.6850, and 0.6900.
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