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After a volatile trading week, the DXY dollar index closes with a bit of symbolic growth, remaining near the notorious 105.00 mark (earlier, many economists and investors hoped that this level would still stand). But even so, its downward dynamics still prevails, it is worth noting in the context of the ongoing tightening of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. What will happen to the dollar when the Fed stops tightening the monetary policy, we can only guess how deep its fall can be then.
As for the events of the upcoming week, it is worth saying that we also expect it to be quite volatile: in addition to the release of important macro data, four of the world's largest central banks (US, Switzerland, UK, eurozone) will announce their policy rate directions.
Investors will also pay attention to important macro data for the UK, Germany, the eurozone, the US, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and China.
The UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) will publish data on the country's GDP for October. This report reflects the overall economic indicators and has a significant impact on the Bank of England's decision on monetary policy. GDP growth means an improvement in economic conditions, which makes it possible (with a corresponding increase in inflation) to tighten monetary policy, which, in turn, usually has a positive effect on the quotes of the national currency.
The release of the quarterly report, and its preliminary release, has the greatest impact on the pound quotes. Monthly data does not affect the pound so much. Nevertheless, investors who follow the dynamics of its quotes are likely to pay attention to this report.
Data worse than the forecast/previous values will negatively affect the GBP quotes.
Previous values: -0.6%, -0.3%, +0.2%, -0.6%, +0.5%, -0.3%, -0.1%, 0%, +0.7% ( in January 2022).
Forecast for October: -0.1%.
The level of influence on the markets is average.
The Bank of Canada, like many of the world's major central banks that have taken the path of tightening monetary policy, is in a difficult situation - to curb the rise in inflation without hurting the national economy. It is obvious that the latest tough decisions, when the interest rate was raised immediately by 0.50% or 0.75%, were made against the backdrop of not only growing fears of rising inflation, but also the risks of a deepening global economic downturn.
Macklem is likely to explain the Bank of Canada's recent interest rate decision and possibly provide guidance on the outlook for monetary policy.
The tough tone of his speech will help the Canadian dollar strengthen. If he does not touch upon the monetary policy of the central bank, the reaction to his speech will be weak.
As a key indicator of the dynamics of the labor market this report published monthly by the ONS includes data on average earnings for the last 3 months (with and without bonuses), as well as data on unemployment in the UK, also for the period of the last 3 months.
A rise in earnings is bullish for the GBP as it is an indirect indicator of a rising consumer spending power and a contributing factor to the rise in inflation. A low reading is seen as negative (or bearish) for the GBP.
Average earnings including bonuses are expected to rise again in the last 3 months (August-October) after rising by +6.0%, +6.0%, +5.5%, +5.2%, +6.4%, +6.8%, +7.0%, +5.6%, +4.8%, +4.3%, +4.2% in the previous periods; no premiums, also up (after rising +5.7%, +5.4%, +5.2%, +4.7%, +4.4%, +4.2%, +4.2%, +4.1%, +3.8%, +3.7%, +3.8% in previous periods).
If the data is better than forecast and/or previous values, the pound is likely to strengthen. Data worse than forecast/previous values will have a negative effect on the pound.
Also, over the 3 months (August through October) unemployment is expected to be at 3.6% (vs. 3.6%, 3.5%, 3.6%, 3.8%, 3.8%, 3.8%, 3.7%, 3.8%, 3.9% in previous periods).
The falling unemployment rate is a positive for the pound, rising unemployment is a negative.
Also, when making a trading plan for the day, you should keep in mind that the volatility in the pound quotes is expected to increase when the British labor market data is published.
The level of influence on the markets is medium to high.
Consumer prices account for a large part of overall inflation. Under normal economic conditions, rising prices force the country's central bank to raise interest rates to avoid excessive inflation (above the central bank's target level). Stagflation is dangerous for the economy. This is the combination of slow economic growth, high unemployment, and a high rate of inflation. In this situation, the central bank must act very carefully so as not to hurt the recovery of economic growth.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is published by Eurostat or the European statistical office, is an indicator to measure inflation and is used by the Governing Council of the European Central Bank to assess the level of price stability. Normally, a positive reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a negative reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
Growth of the indicator is positive for the national currency (under normal circumstances). Data worse than the previous value and/or forecast is negative for the EUR.
The previous indicator values: +11.6% in October, +10.9% in September, +8.8% in August, +8.5% in July, +8.2% in June, +8.7% in May, +7.8% in April, +7.6% in March, +5.5% in February, +5.1% in January 2022 (annualized).
Forecast for November: +11.3% (preliminary estimate was +11.3% with a forecast of +12.2).
The level of impact on markets (final release) is medium.
Consumer prices account for most of the overall inflation rate. Rising prices cause the central bank to raise interest rates to curb inflation, and conversely, when inflation declines or signs of deflation (that is, when the purchasing power of money increases and prices of goods and services fall) the central bank usually seeks to devalue the national currency by lowering interest rates in order to increase aggregate demand.
This indicator (Core Consumer Price Index, Core CPI) is key to assessing inflation and changes in purchasing preferences. Food and energy are excluded from this indicator in order to get a more accurate estimate (the prices of this category of goods account for about a quarter of the Consumer Price Index. They tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The FOMC tends to pay more attention to the underlying data).
A high reading is bullish for the USD, a low reading is bearish.
Previous values: +0.3% (+6.3% annualized) in October, +0.6% (+6.6% annualized) in September, +0.6% (+6.3% annualized) in August, +0.3% (+5.9% annualized) in July, +0.7% (+5.9% annualized) in June, +0.6% (+6.0% annualized) in May, +0.6% (+6.2% annualized) in April, +0.3% (+6.5% annualized) in March.
Data better than forecast and previous values should be positive for USD.
Forecast for November: +0.6% (+6.4% YoY).
The level of impact on the markets is high.
In his speech, Lowe assesses the current situation in Australia's economy and outlines monetary policy plans.
The RBA governor has more influence on the AUD's exchange rate than any other person in the Australian government. Investors will be closely watching Lowe's speech to get hints and better understand the RBA's monetary policy outlook.
Any signals from him regarding changes in the RBA's monetary policy plans will cause a surge in volatility in AUD quotes. The harsh rhetoric of his speech regarding inflation restraint and the RBA's policy plans will cause a strengthening of the AUD. If Lowe does not address the topic of monetary policy, the market reaction to his speech will be weak.
Low to high level of influence on markets.
The Tankan Manufacturing Index released by the Bank of Japan measures business conditions for Japanese manufacturers. The index is considered as an indicator of business conditions in Japan, which is heavily dependent on the industrial sector. Based on a survey of around 1,200 large manufacturers, where respondents are asked to assess the relative level of overall business conditions, the index is calculated.
An indicator value above 0 (zero - the middle line) and its positive dynamics is bullish for the JPY, while a value below 0 is bearish.
The previous values are 8, 9, 14, 17, 18, 14, 5 (Q1 2021).
Forecast for Q4 2022: 10.
The level of influence on the markets is medium to high.
The Consumer Prices Index released by the ONS is a key indicator of inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation. CPI is an important indicator for central bankers in determining the parameters of current monetary policy.
A figure below the forecast/previous value can provoke weakening of the pound, as low inflation will force the BoE to pursue a soft monetary policy. Conversely, rising inflation and its high level will put pressure on the BoE to tighten its monetary policy, which in normal economic conditions is seen as a positive factor for the national currency.
Previous values of the indicator (in annual terms): 11.1%, 10.1%, 9.9%, 10.1%, 9.4%, 9.1%, 9%, 7%, 6.2%, 5.5%, 5.4%, 5.1%, 4.2%. The data indicate an acceleration of inflation.
Forecast for November: 11.5% (annualized).
The level of impact on the markets is high.
The interest rate level is the most important factor in assessing the value of a currency. Investors look at most other economic indicators only to predict how rates will change in the future.
The Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates again, not by 75 bps but by 50 bps (to 4.50%) and may announce plans for further rate hikes, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell explaining his decision.
Dollar bulls are waiting for the U.S. central bank to continue its monetary tightening cycle. However, it is not quite clear what will happen after the Fed meeting in December.
When the Fed announces its decision, volatility in the market usually increases sharply, especially in the U.S. stock market and in the dollar quotes.
Powell's comments could affect both short-term and long-term USD trading. A more hawkish stance on the Fed's monetary policy is seen as positive and strengthens USD, while a more cautious stance is seen as negative for USD. Investors anticipate Powell's views on the Fed's further plans for this year.
The FOMC's economic outlook report includes the outlook for inflation and economic growth over the next 2 years and, importantly, the views and forecasts of individual FOMC members. This report is the primary tool that the Fed uses to inform investors of its economic and monetary forecasts.
The level of impact on the markets is high.
The FOMC press conference is used by the Fed to talk about monetary policy. The Committee reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy, and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. The FOMC press conference lasts about an hour and consists of 2 parts. In the first part, the resolution is read out, followed by a series of questions from the invited press representatives and answers from the Fed. Almost always the course of the FOMC press-conference (after the meeting on the monetary policy) is accompanied by increased volatility on the markets, especially in the USD quotes and the financial instruments that are traded on the stock market.
The level of influence on the markets is high.
Statistics New Zealand will publish its Q2 GDP data report. This report shows the overall economic performance and has a significant impact on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy decision.
Growth in GDP indicates an improvement in economic conditions that allows (with a corresponding increase in inflation) a tightening of monetary policy, which in turn is usually positively reflected in the quotes of the national currency.
The report causes increased volatility in NZD quotes.
Take note that the pandemic coronavirus was the least painful for New Zealand compared to other major economies. The Q3 GDP report for New Zealand is likely to be positive.
Previous values (annualized): +0.4%, +1.2%, +3.1%, -0.2%, +2.9%, -0.8%, +0.2%, -11.3%, 0%, +1.7%. Forecast for Q3 2022: -1.9% (+1.9% annualized).
Data worse than forecast/previous values will have a negative impact on NZD quotes.
The level of impact on the markets is medium.
This report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics is an important indicator of labor market conditions in Australia. It shows the monthly change in the number of employed people in Australia. It is a significant indicator of consumer spending which accounts for a large part of total economic activity.
Growth in the indicator has a positive effect on consumer spending, which stimulates economic growth. A high reading is positive for the AUD, while a low reading is negative.
Previous indicator values: 32200 in October, +900 in September, +33500 in August, -40900 in July, 88400 in June, +60600 in May, +4000 in April, +17900 in March, +77400 in February, +12900 in January 2022.
Forecast for November: +46500.
The unemployment rate is an indicator that measures the ratio of the unemployed population to the total working-age population. An increase in the index indicates weakness in the labor market, which leads to a weakening of the national economy. A decrease in the indicator is positive for the AUD.
Previous values of the indicator: 3.4% in October, 3.5% in September and August, 3.4% in July, 3.5% in June, 3.9% in May, April and March, 4.0% in February, 4.2% in January.
If the data from this report is worse than expected, the AUD is likely to fall sharply in the short run. Better than expected data has a positive effect on the AUD.
Forecast for November: 3.3%.
The level of impact on the markets is medium to high.
The Retail Sales released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China is a monthly index that measures the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. It is also considered as an indicator of consumer confidence and indicates the health of the retail sector in the near term.
A rise in the index is usually positive for the CNY; a decline in the index is negative for the CNY.
Previous index values (annualized) -0.5%, +2.5%, +5.4%, +2.7%, +3.1%, -6.7%, -11.1, -3.5, +6.7 (in February 2022) after rising +8% in the final months of 2019 and falling -20.5% in February 2020).
This is still weak data, which suggests an uneven pace of recovery for this sector of the Chinese economy after a strong fall in February-March 2020. If the data is weaker than forecast, the CNY could weaken sharply.
Forecast: China's retail sales rose +1.0% (annualized) in November 2022.
The level of impact on the markets is medium to high.
The level of interest rates is the most important factor in assessing the value of a currency. Investors look at most other economic indicators only to predict how rates will change in the future.
Previously, the SNB has consistently advocated a soft monetary policy in the country, and the rate of the national currency has traditionally been considered "overvalued". Nevertheless, during its June 2022 meeting, the SNB unexpectedly raised its deposit interest rate to -0.25%, surprising investors and economists who had expected the interest rate to remain at -0.75%.
Following the central bank's decision to raise its policy rate by 50 basis points, SNB Governor Thomas Jordan, said that the Swiss franc was no longer heavily overvalued due to its recent decline. An accompanying statement from the SNB also said that "tighter monetary policy is aimed at preventing inflation from spreading more broadly to goods and services in Switzerland." At the same time, the SNB would intervene in currency markets if the safe-haven currency became too strong.
The SNB is expected to keep the current deposit rate at 0.50% at the end of the December 2022 meeting.
Investors will also be studying the SNB statement to pick up on signals regarding the Bank's future monetary policy plans. The SNB's soft tone and inclination to continue its extra loose monetary policy will have a negative effect on the franc. If the SNB makes unexpected statements, volatility in the currency market and especially in the franc price will rise sharply.
The level of influence on the markets is high.
The press conference is used by the SNB to talk about monetary policy. It examines the factors that influenced the recent interest rate decisions and comments on the economic environment in which the decision was made. Very often, during a press conference, volatility in the markets, especially in the franc price, increases, especially if the SNB makes unexpected statements about the Bank's monetary policy.
The impact on the markets is high.
Interest rate is the most important factor in assessing the value of the currency. Investors look at most other economic indicators only to predict how rates will change in the future.
It is possible that the BoE will raise interest rates again at this meeting. However, even though positive macro data is coming out of the UK, the interest rate could remain at the same 3.00%, which could cause the pound to weaken.
The BoE's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) minutes provide information on the balance of votes for and against an interest rate hike/reduction.
The BoE's Monetary Policy Report, which is also released at the same time, assesses the economic situation, economic prospects and inflation.
A softer tone to the report will encourage the pound to weaken. Conversely, a harsh rhetoric of the report on inflation, implying further interest rate hikes, will cause the pound to strengthen.
The level of influence on the markets is high.
The consequences of Brexit and the coronavirus pandemic, due to which European countries were forced to introduce strict quarantine restrictions, negatively affecting economic activity, trade conflicts, and political instability factors in Europe are the main threats to the European economy. A new factor in Europe is the military conflict in Ukraine, where Russia is conducting a special military operation. According to calculations by ECB economists, this military conflict could reduce eurozone GDP by 0.3%-0.4%, and in the worst-case scenario, GDP would shrink by almost 1%. However, some of the economists believe that these are modest projections. The situation may be much more serious.
Against the backdrop of the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict, which triggered a sharp increase in energy and food prices, inflation in Europe has accelerated sharply, with economists expecting it to rise further in the coming months as energy prices continue to rise while the EU imposes new restrictions on the Russian economy. The consumer price index (CPI) for the eurozone rose by +8.1% in May (annualized), which was higher than the forecast of +7.7% growth and the previous value of +7.4%. Consumer price growth accelerated to +8.6% (year-on-year) in June, to +9.9% in September, and to 10.7% in October.
Thus, inflation in the eurozone is accelerating, renewing record highs and forcing ECB policymakers to speed up decisions to curb it.
The focus of EU foreign economic policy on the rejection of Russian energy carriers, combined with high inflation and problems in supply chains, will trigger a recession in the eurozone, economists say. And now the ECB is in a difficult situation: to curb the accelerating inflation, while not harming the recovery of the European economy.
Still, according to ECB President Christine Lagarde, the bank may raise its key interest rate again to reduce the risks of record-high inflation rates and ease growing fears of euro weakness. The key interest rate and the ECB deposit rate for commercial banks are expected to rise by 0.5% (to 2.5% and 2.0%, respectively) at the end of this meeting.
But there are other predictions, either one way or the other, or, for example, that interest rates will be raised by 0.25% or 0.75%.
We should also be prepared for interest rate hikes at the next ECB meetings. Perhaps this will also be mentioned in the accompanying statements of the ECB executives.
The level of influence on the markets is high.
The U.S. Census Bureau will release its regular monthly U.S. retail sales report. This key leading indicator of consumer spending reflects total retailer sales. Consumer spending accounts for the majority of total economic activity while domestic trade accounts for the majority of GDP growth. A relative decline of the indicator may have a short-term negative impact on the USD, while an increase of the indicator is positive for the USD.
Previous values: +1.3%, 0%, +0.3%, 0%, +0.8%, -0.1%, +0.7%, +1.4%, +0.8%, +4.9% (in January 2022).
Forecast for November: -0.3%.
The level of impact on markets is high.
The retail control group represents the total industry sales that are used to prepare the estimates of PCE for most goods. A high reading strengthens the U.S. dollar and vice versa, a weak report weakens the dollar. Anything worse than the prior estimate and/or forecast could have a negative impact on the dollar in the short-term.
Previous values: +0.7%, +0.4%, 0%, +0.8%, +0.7%, -0.3%, +0.5%, +1.1%, -0.9%, +6.7% in January 2022.
Forecast for November: +0.3%.
The level of impact on the markets is high.
Also at the same time, the U.S. Labor Department will release its weekly report on the state of the U.S. labor market with data on initial and secondary jobless claims. The labor market condition (together with GDP and inflation data) is a key indicator for the Fed in determining its monetary policy parameters.
A result above expectations and a rise in the indicator suggests weakness in the labor market, which negatively affects the U.S. dollar. A fall in the indicator and its low value is a sign of labor market recovery and can have a short-term positive impact on the USD.
The initial and continued Jobless Claims are expected to remain at pre-pandemic lows, which is also a positive sign for the USD, indicating a stabilization of the US labor market.
Previous (weekly) values for initial unemployment claims data: 230k, 225k, 240k, 222k, 226k, 217k, 214k, 226k, 219k, 190k, 209k, 208k, 218k, 228k, 237k, 245k.
Previous (weekly) values on unemployment reapplication data: 1671k, 1608k, 1551k, 1425k, 1488k, 1438k, 1383k, 1364k, 1365k, 1346k, 1376k, 1401k, 1401k, 1437k, 1412k.
The level of influence on the markets - from medium to high.
During the press conference, Lagarde will explain the Bank's decision on rates and will likely outline the central bank's monetary policy outlook for the coming months. Lately, there have been increasing signals from the ECB leadership about the need to further tighten monetary policy, which remains one of the softest (along with the Bank of Japan and the SNB) among the world's largest central banks.
If Lagarde sends another hawkish signal, the euro could strengthen sharply. The soft tone of her statements will have a negative impact on the euro.
The level of influence on markets is high.
These reports are an analysis of a survey of 400 purchasing managers in which respondents are asked to assess relative levels of business conditions, including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Since purchasing managers have perhaps the most up-to-date information on company conditions, this indicator is an important indicator of the state of the Australian economy as a whole. These sectors form a significant part of Australian GDP. A result above 50 signals is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, whereas a result below 50 is seen as negative (or bearish) for the AUD. Data worse than 50 is seen as negative for the AUD.
Previous Values:
Manufacturing PMI: 51.3, 52.7, 53.5, 53.8, 55.7, 56.2, 55.7.
PMI in the services sector: 47.6, 49.3, 50.6, 50.2, 50.9, 52.6, 53.2.
The level of influence on the markets is medium.
The Retail Sales Index is a key indicator of consumer spending which accounts for a large part of total economic activity. The retail sales index is released monthly by the ONS. The index is considered as an indicator of consumer confidence, reflecting also the state of the retail sector in the near term. Generally, a rise in the index is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a decline is seen as negative (or bearish). Previous values of the index (in annual terms): -6.1%, -6.9%, -5.6%, -3.2%, -6.1%, -4.7%, -5.7%, +1.3%, +7.2%, +9.4% (in January 2022).
Forecast for November: -0.2% (+2.7% annualized).
The level of impact on markets is medium
This S&P Global report, which is an analysis of a survey of 800 purchasing managers, asks respondents to assess the relative level of business conditions, including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries and inventories. Since purchasing managers have perhaps the most up-to-date information on company conditions, this indicator is an important indicator of the state of the German economy as a whole. This sector accounts for a large portion of Germany's GDP. Normally, a result above 50 signals is seen as positive, or bullish for the EUR, whereas a result below 50 is seen as negative, or bearish for the EUR. Data worse than the forecast and/or the previous value will have a negative impact on the EUR.
Previous values:
Manufacturing PMI: 46.2, 45.1, 47.8, 49.1, 49.3, 52.0, 54.8, 54.6, 56.9, 58.4, 59.8,
Composite PMI: 46.3, 45.1, 45.7, 46.9, 48.1, 51.3, 53.7.
Forecast for December: 46.7 and 46.3, respectively.
The level of impact on markets (pre-release) is high.
The Eurozone PMI Composite Output (from S&P Global) is an important indicator of the health of the entire European economy. A result above 50 signals is seen as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a result below 50 is seen as negative (or bearish) for the EUR. Data worse than the forecast and/or previous value will have a negative impact on the EUR. Previous values: 47.8, 47.3, 48.1, 48.9, 49.9, 52.0, 54.8, 55.8, 54.9.
Forecast for December: 48.0.
The level of influence on the markets (pre-release) is high.
UK manufacturing and service sector PMI (released by S&P Global) is a significant indicator of business conditions in the UK economy. If the data is worse than expected and the previous value, the pound is likely to decline short-term, but sharply. Data better than the forecast and the previous value will have a positive effect on the pound. In the meantime, a result above 50 is seen as positive and strengthens the GBP, below 50 is seen as negative for the GBP.
Previous values:
Manufacturing PMI: 46.5, 46.2, 48.4, 47.3, 52.1, 52.8, 54.6, 55.8, 55.2, 58.0, 57.3.
Services PMI: 48,8, 48,8, 50,0, 50,9, 52,6, 54,3, 53,4.
Forecast for December: 46.5 and 49.2, respectively.
The level of influence on the markets (pre-release) is high.
CPI measures the overall change in the prices of goods and services that people typically buy over time. CPI is a key indicator for inflation and changes in purchasing habits.
The Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI) excludes food and energy in the calculation for a more accurate estimate.
Inflation estimates are important for central bank guidance in setting the parameters of current monetary policy. A figure below the forecast/previous value can provoke a weakening of the euro, as low inflation will force the ECB to pursue a soft monetary policy. Conversely, rising inflation and high inflation will put pressure on the ECB to tighten its monetary policy, which in normal economic conditions is seen as a positive factor for the national currency.
Previous CPI values (annualized): +10.6%, +9.9%, +9.1%, +8.9%, +8.6%, +8.1%, +7.4%, +7.4%, +5.9%, +5.1% (in January 2022).
Previous Core CPI values (annualized): +5.0%, +4.8%, +4.3%, +4.0%, +3.7%, +3.8%, +3.5%, +3.0%, +2.7%, +2.3% (in January 2022).
Preliminary estimates for November were -0.1% (+10.0% y/y) and 0% (+5.0% y/y) for core CPI, with forecasts of +1.5% (+11.2% y/y) and +0.6% (+5.2% y/y) for core CPI.
The level of impact on markets (final estimate) is medium.
The S&P Global monthly report includes (among other data) the Composite PMI and PMI Indices for the manufacturing and services sectors of the US economy. These indices are important indicators of the health of these sectors and of the US economy as a whole. A result above 50 is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a result below 50 is seen as negative (or bearish) for the USD. Readings above 50 signals an acceleration in activity, which is positive for the USD. A drop below this number, and especially a drop below 50, would result in a sharp short-term weakening of the USD.
Previous PMI values:
Manufacturing 47.7, 50.4, 52.0, 51.5, 52.2, 57.0, 59.2.
Composite 46.4, 48.2, 49.5, 44.6, 47.7, 52.3, 53.6, 56.0;
Services sector 46.2, 47.8, 49.3, 43.7, 47.3, 52.7, 53.4, 55.6.
The level of market impact of this S&P Global report (preliminary release) is high. However, it is still lower than the similar report from ISM (American Institute for Supply Management).
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