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EUR/USD is still trading within the 1.0581-1.0658 horizontal channel. As I mentioned before, such a clear horizontal channel is now more of a positive than a negative because traders have clear trading targets, which are executed by the pair itself. For example, yesterday, the price perfectly reached both limits of the channel, which let traders open a position and make profit despite the flat. So it is possible to trade and make profit even in the flat if you follow the basic rules. The US had a macroeconomic background and the GDP report for the third quarter was the first report this week that was actually worth paying attention to. GDP grew not by 2.9% as predicted, but by 3.2%, so the dollar's growth (especially during the US session) was logical and justified. Another thing is that from a technical perspective, this movement did not change anything because the pair remained in the flat anyway.
There were several trading signals on Thursday and all of them were quite pleasant. First, the price rebounded twice from the critical Kijun-Sen line. In the first case, it went down by 20 points, so traders had to put a Stop Loss on the trade to Breakeven, which was used to close it. In the second case, the price fell to the Senkou Span B line and 1.0581, where the shorts should have been closed with profit at around 40 pips. You could have used the buy signal, but it did not bring traders any profit, as the price failed to start a new growth. As a result, the deal closed with zero or just a small loss. Altogether there was a profit of about 30-40 points.
In 2022, the COT reports for the euro are becoming more and more interesting. In the first part of the year, the reports were pointing to the bullish sentiment among professional traders. However, the euro was confidently losing value. Then, for several months, reports were reflecting bearish sentiment and the euro was also falling. Now the net position of non-commercial traders is again bullish and strengthens almost every week. The euro is growing but a fairly high value of the net position may point to the end of the upward movement or at least, to a correction. During the given period, non-commercial traders opened 8,600 long positions, whereas the number of short positions rose by 8,500. Thus, the net positions fell by 100. Notably, the green and red lines of the first indicator have moved far apart from each other, which may mean the end of the ascending trend (which wasn't actually an uptrend because the upward movement of the last two and a half months fits under the "correction" category against the global downtrend). The number of long positions is 125,000 higher than the number of sell positions opened by non-commercial traders. Thus, the net position of the non-commercial group may continue to grow. However, the euro may remain unchanged. The overall number of short orders exceeds the number of long orders by 33,000 (711,000 vs. 678,000).
EUR/USD is still in a high position on the one-hour chart, and is still in a total flat. Lines of the Ichimoku indicator may soon merge with each other and lose all meaning. We should now rely on the 1.0581-1.0658 horizontal channel. If EUR manages to go beyond it, then we can count on some trend movement. On Friday, the pair may trade at the following levels: 1.0340-1.0366, 1.0485, 1.0581, 1.0658, 1.0736, 1.0806, as well as Senkou Span B (1.0589) and Kijun Sen (1.0656). Lines of the Ichimoku indicator may move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also support and resistance levels, but signals are not formed near these levels. Bounces and breakouts of the extreme levels and lines could act as signals. Don't forget about stop-loss orders, if the price covers 15 pips in the right direction. This will prevent you from losses in case of a false signal. On December 23, no important report or event scheduled in the EU, while the US will release reports on the PCE Price Index, Durable Goods Orders, and Capital Goods Orders. I don't think these reports will be able to take the pair out of the flat, but there might be some reaction.
Price levels of support and resistance are thick red lines, near which the movement may end. They do not provide trading signals.
The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, moved to the one-hour chart from the 4-hour one. They are strong lines.
Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price bounced earlier. They provide trading signals.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts reflects the net position size of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts reflects the net position size for the non-commercial group.
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