16.01.202309:11 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 16/01/2023

The data on industrial production in Europe turned out to be noticeably better than forecasted, although we are still talking about a slowdown in its growth rate. The growth rate was expected to slow down from 3.4% to 0.8%, but in fact it only went down to 2.0%. All in all, its growth was pretty good, but I can't say the same thing for the trend. However, it looks like the euro managed to remain stable because the data turned out to be better than expected. The single currency did show movements, but it wasn't that active. It went down after the report was published, and after that it eventually returned to the values from the start of trading.

Industrial production (Europe):

Today the macroeconomic calendar is empty, and it looks like the market will stand still as it waits for some news and reports, which could affect the mood. Most likely, the market will be looking for a reason to make the euro weaker since it is definitely overbought. But today it is very unlikely that something like that will happen.

The euro appreciated by over 200 pips against the USD during the previous week, at the peak of the trend. And so EUR has renewed the local high and stayed above the resistance level of 1.0800. The absence of a full-size correction on the market, while the euro has an overbought status, suggests that speculators ignore this fact about the euro.

The RSI technical indicator is moving within the overbought zone, indicating that long positions on the euro are way above its intrinsic or fair value.

On the four-hour and daily charts, the Alligator's MA are headed upwards, which corresponds to the current bullish cycle.

Outlook

The 1.0800 mark that the pair previously crossed is now playing the role of support, where during the recent pullback, the pair had bounced off it. This indicates the bulls' desire to hold on to the uptrend. Keeping the price above 1.0800 enables the euro to rise further.

The quote must fall below 1.0770 on the four-hour chart if we want to consider a bearish scenario.

In terms of the complex indicator analysis, we see that in the short-term, intraday and medium-term periods, there is still a buy signal because of the uptrend.