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Eurozone business activity rose in February at the fastest pace in 9 months, more ECB officials are talking about the need for aggressive monetary policy tightening, the energy crisis is a thing of the past, but all this is not enough to make EURUSD buyers go into a counterattack. When the U.S. dollar is as strong as a bull, it cares little about the success of its competitors.
The Eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers Index rose to its highest level since May on the back of a surge in business activity in the services sector. Respondents were confident due to the disappearance of recession fears and the fact that inflation is showing signs of peaking. The manufacturing sector also received preferences due to improved performance of suppliers. Price pressures eased, but it remained in the services sector, which gives the ECB reason to continue aggressively raising rates.
Business activity in the euro area
Germany's Purchasing Managers' Index was in positive territory above 50 for the first time since June, signaling an expanding economy. The French PMI reached a 7-month high of 51.6 despite pessimistic forecasts by Bloomberg experts of further contraction.
Optimism is off the scale, fears of a recession are receding, but the euro is in no hurry to grow. A little later, during the American session, statistics on business activity in the United States will be published. At the same time, strong data has recently had a bad effect on stock indices. Investors perceived the fall of the S&P 500 a deterioration in global risk appetite and leads to an increase in demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset.
A strong economy gives the Fed reason to continue the cycle of tightening monetary policy, although in early February, markets expected that the March hike in the federal funds rate by a quarter of a point would be the last in the cycle. Now Goldman Sachs predicts as many as three acts of monetary restriction at 25 bps each in March, May and June. As a result, the cost of borrowing will rise to 5.5%. Great news for EURUSD bears.
That said, sellers need fresh drivers to continue the pullback, including speculation about a 50 bps increase in the federal funds rate in March or a peak around 6%. It will be difficult to achieve this without another portion of strong macro statistics for the United States. As a result, EURUSD is unlikely to be able to go too far down after updating the February low. Most likely, there will be a rebound from important support levels, followed by the development of consolidation. It is extremely important to decide in what trading range.
Technically, on the daily chart of EURUSD, the inability of the bulls to win back the pin bar resulted in a sell-off in the direction of its lower shadow. If the market does not go in the direction it is expected to go, it is more likely to go in the opposite direction. It makes sense to hold the shorts formed earlier and to use the rebound from 1.0585, 1.056 and 1.0515 pivot levels to go long.
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