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On the 4-hour TF, the image is much more expressive. Over the past ten days, the price of bitcoin has increased significantly and has easily surpassed the level of $25,211. Of course, the "black swan" of the US banking crisis and the Fed's emergency steps to keep the system functioning did not go unnoticed. Now, the growth can continue with a minimum target of $29,750.
In the meantime, a variety of crypto experts have started to speak out more and have started repeating the prediction of $100,000 per bitcoin. For instance, according to Charles Edwards, CEO of the investment firm Capriole, bitcoin is approaching the $100,000 level. He claimed to have observed the technical figure for "hit and run" on the charts, with $100,000 representing the first target. Mr. Edwards further mentioned that it might not be successful like other technical analysis patterns. Now here's an accurate prediction: Bitcoin will either increase to $100,000 or it won't.
The Fed will meet this week; in fact, it will do so tomorrow. Although we think the Fed could increase pressure on risky assets, the fact that the regulator has resumed buying bonds rather than selling them makes a new rate hike irrelevant at the moment. At the same time, neither for inflation nor for risky assets. The rate may increase further in the future as a result of the Fed's action, which might again drastically reduce the demand for bitcoin. There is no need to wait for a response because traders already know that the Fed is not expected to increase the rate on Wednesday evening by more than 0.25%. We believe that any Fed actions will be ignored by bitcoin market participants.
Another factor is Jerome Powell's statements, which will not be able to overlook the new QE program, the "bank fall" in the United States, and a likely slowdown in the rate of decreasing inflation. As a result, we can get some crucial feedback that will help us come to new conclusions. The dollar is currently declining while bitcoin is increasing. But given that no one could have foreseen the collapse of multiple banks, such a course of events can be viewed in some ways as an accident. And nobody in 2020 could have foreseen the severity of the ensuing pandemic and crisis.
The bitcoin cryptocurrency has begun a new cycle of upward movement in the 4-hour timeframe, and we suggest purchasing if the level of $25,211 is exceeded. Thus, with a target of $29,750, long positions can now be maintained. Overcoming this level calls for new long positions with a $34,267 target. Sales on the "bullish" trend are irrelevant, but if the price moves back up from $29,750, it will be feasible to start small short positions with a target price of $2,000–3,000 lower.
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