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Having weathered the spring storm, Bitcoin has stabilized and is trying to figure out what it really is. Security or a gamble? In Britain, they propose classifying cryptocurrencies as gambling to prioritize safety over Rishi Sunak's government's desire to attract investment. On the one hand, the crypto industry would breathe a sigh of relief, as the attacks of regulatory bodies would cease. On the other hand, the consequences could turn out to be far worse than the benefits.
If trading Bitcoin is equated with gambling, the aura of a financial asset will fade from cryptocurrency. Thanks to this aura, consumers feel safe investing their money. At the same time, professional investors will start to exit the market. Their current flight, on a much smaller scale against the backdrop of tighter control measures from regulators, is already draining liquidity from the market and is one of the factors contributing to the fall of BTC/USD.
In my view, it would be better for Bitcoin to become a security. Yes, it will have to be under the constant scrutiny of regulators. Yes, volatility will significantly decrease, and we will have to forget about BTC/USD returning to record highs within the next 5–10 years. However, it would be a rather interesting financial asset, especially since securities are popular right now.
Surprisingly, neither rumors of an impending recession, nor the threat of default, nor the increasing likelihood of a Fed rate hike in June are frightening U.S. stock indices. Since the beginning of the year, the S&P 500 has grown by 9.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite by 21.2%. Yes, the actual results of companies turned out to be generally better than forecasts. But these forecasts were initially low.
Market Expectations for Fed Rates
If you want peace, prepare for war. In my opinion, U.S. company managers took into account the risks of a recession and prepared for it, so the resilience of the economy was good news for them. It helped them achieve better results, which had a positive effect on stocks and on the global appetite for risk. And even though Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq Composite is decreasing, it still remains a risky asset.
Alongside the attacks from regulatory bodies and the outflow of liquidity, crypto assets suffered due to blockchain malfunctions. As a result, Binance had to suspend Bitcoin withdrawals twice. This affected the reputation of the world's largest crypto exchange. Its share of spot trading volumes fell from 73% to 51% since the beginning of May. Conversely, the share of OKX increased from 5% to 9%, and Huobi from 2% to 10%.
Exchange Share in Spot Trading Dynamics
In my opinion, it's too early to write Bitcoin off. Yes, it has internal problems. However, the external environment remains favorable for risky assets. So, the cryptocurrency will continue its fight.
Technically, on the BTC/USD daily chart, a Wolfe Wave pattern is forming. In theory, to enter long, one should wait for the breakout of line 2–4 near the mark of 28,400. However, in my opinion, it's possible to buy on the fair value breakout of 27,500 with an initial target of 31,000.
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