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The fewer clouds gather in the sky of the U.S. economy, the worse it is for gold. The precious metal continues to trade in a narrow range and awaits cues from Jerome Powell. Gold is ready to react sensitively to the words of the Fed Chairman, but in reality, monetary policy will depend on incoming data. And the current statistics suggest that the risks of a decline in XAU/USD quotes appear higher than the likelihood of their growth.
There is ample evidence that the U.S. economy is improving, not worsening. The leading indicator GDPNow from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta signals that GDP will grow by 2% in the second quarter, which is much higher than the expected contraction of the economy forecasted by Bloomberg experts in April. Preliminary data from the University of Michigan indicate improving consumer sentiment and slowing inflation expectations. Even the real estate market, which is very sensitive to interest rates, shows signs of life.
A soft landing looms on the horizon, and that's bad news for gold. The main drivers of its rally in 2022–2023 were the armed conflict in Ukraine, fears of a recession and inflation, as well as tense relations between the U.S. and China. And while geopolitics has not lost its power, slowing prices and decreasing the likelihood of a downturn make the "bullish" positions on XAU/USD vulnerable.
However, there are plenty of optimists in the market. According to Bloomberg Economics, the most aggressive tightening of the Fed's monetary policy will trigger a deep recession in the second half of 2023. As a result, gold will not only break through $2,000 but also soar to a new record of $3,000 per ounce. Central bank activity and physical demand will support it.
Unfortunately, for now, in my opinion, such a scenario seems unreal. Yes, central banks made record purchases of precious metals in 2022, totaling 1,136 tons. However, in the first quarter, the figure dropped to a modest 228 tons. Against the backdrop of China's slower-than-expected economic recovery, the activity of retail gold sellers is declining.
Dynamics of retail gold sales in China
Without support from the physical asset market, "bulls" on XAU/USD will struggle to cope with the Fed's aggressive "hawkish" rhetoric, especially since the dynamics of ETF holdings leave much to be desired.
Strong macroeconomic statistics from the United States will continue to hit the precious metal. It will convince investors of the economy's resilience and allow the Fed to do what it forecasts: raise the federal funds rate by a total of 50 basis points in two FOMC meetings this year. Fears that Jerome Powell will appear before Congress in "hawkish" suit are troubling the "bulls" on XAU/USD.
Technically, the daily chart of gold still shows the pattern of Spike and Ledge. The sentiment remains "bearish" as the quotes are below the moving averages. In such a situation, selling opportunities will arise either with a breakout of the lower boundary of the consolidation range at $1,930–$1,970 per ounce or a rebound from the EMA near $1,950 and $1,956.
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