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Early in the American session, the British pound (GBP/USD) is trading around 1.2583, below the 200 EMA, and below the 21 SMA. On the H1 chart, we can see that the British pound has been trading within a bearish channel formed since early December. GBP/USD is expected to move towards one of the support or resistance levels of this channel in the coming hours following the release of the US nonfarm payrolls.
The US employment report will be available in the coming hours and analysts predict an increase of 184,000 jobs in the US public and private sectors in November. The data below the consensus could affect the US dollar and we could see a strong upward movement in GBP/USD which could reach the top of the downtrend channel around 1.2625.
On the other hand, a positive result for the US dollar could continue to weigh on the British pound. So, GBP/USD could reach 1.2550 and could even fall towards the bottom of the downtrend channel around 1.2518.
The British pound has strong support at about 1.2550 and around the bottom of the downtrend channel located at 1.2518. Finally, there is the psychological level of 1.2500. On the other hand, resistance is found between 1.2594 and 1.2625. Both levels act as buy or sell points. We could decide on the market entry after the publication of the fundamental data.
The reaction of the British pound could be positive for the next hours, but we could expect a continuation of the downward movement which will allow us to sell if GBP/USD approaches 1.2625. The same could happen if the first reaction is bearish which will allow us to buy.
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