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Tuesday was predominantly marked by sideways movement, with some downward movement in the latter half of the day. Take note that the US dollar strengthened after America released two reports, both of which turned out to be weaker than expected and should have triggered the USD's fall, not fuel its growth. However, the market continues to trade according to its own rules and pays no attention to the macroeconomic backdrop. It is also not clear if the pair will finally enter a bearish correction. The British pound has retraced about 130 pips from last week's highs, but today the UK will release an important inflation report. This means that the market may find a new reason to open long positions.
Yesterday, there were three trading signals. The pair bounced twice off the level of 1.3119 during the European and US session, then it fell to the 1.3050 level and broke through it. Traders could have opened a short position based on these signals, and it should have been manually closed in the evening. Profit would have amounted to about 65 pips, which is quite good.
According to the latest report, the non-commercial group of traders opened 15,200 long positions and 7,400 short ones. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 7,800 positions in a week but in general it continued to rise. The net position has been steadily growing over the past 10 months as well as the pound sterling. Now, the net position has advanced markedly. This is why the pair will hardly maintain its bullish momentum. I believe that a long and protracted downward movement should begin. COT reports signal a slight growth of the British currency but it will not be able to rise in the long term. There are no drivers for opening new long positions. However, there are no technical signals for short positions yet.
The British currency has already grown by a total of 2,800 pips. Without a downward correction, the continuation of the uptrend will be illogical. However, we have observed this type of movement for a long time now. The Non-commercial group of traders has 111,600 long positions and 53,600 short ones. I remain skeptical about the long-term growth of the pound sterling but speculators continue to buy because the pair is growing. Usually, BTC shows such movements.
On the 1H chart, the pound/dollar pair maintains an uptrend, but has consolidated below a critical line, which opens up some corrective prospects. According to technical indicators, the pound sterling is likely to climb higher. Traders also use every opportunity to sell the US dollar. Therefore, practically any report can trigger a new uptrend. The fact that the price has consolidated below the Kijun-sen line suggests a potential decline towards the Senkou Span B line in the future. However, this line will likely rise before the price reaches it.
On July 19, traders should pay attention to the following key levels: 1.2693, 1.2762, 1.2863, 1.2981-1.2987, 1.3050, 1.3119, 1.3175, 1.3222, 1.3273. The Senkou Span B (1.2906) and Kijun-sen (1.3061) lines can also provide signals, e.g. rebounds and breakout of these levels and lines. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss orders at the breakeven level when the price moves in the right direction by 20 pips. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are support and resistance levels that can be used to lock in profits.
The main item on today's agenda is the UK inflation report. Regardless of its value, the pound may rise because the market continues to interpret practically all data as favorable to its current interests. In the US, there are two secondary reports that are unlikely to have a significant impact on the pair's movement.
Support and resistance levels are thick red lines near which the trend may end. They do not provide trading signals;
The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, plotted to the 1H timeframe from the 4H one. They provide trading signals;
Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price bounced earlier. They provide trading signals;
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns;
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the net position size for each category of traders;
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the net position size for the Non-commercial group.
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