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EUR/USD spent the entire Wednesday moving sideways. This is clearly visible around the critical Kijun-sen line, which is near the area where the pair has been trading around all day. Volatility was only around 45 pips, which is very low. This is in the absence of significant economic reports in the EU and the US. There were no interesting speeches either, there was basically nothing. And if we look at the hourly chart, we can see that the pair has been trading sideways for two weeks. So, no matter how you look at it, it's all flat. In this case, we should understand that the market has simply taken a pause. This pause could last for several days or even weeks. Despite the recent downward correction, the euro still remains overbought and overly expensive. Therefore, we believe that it should continue to fall. However, we also warned you that this doesn't mean the pair will drop every day.
Analyzing the trading signals from yesterday doesn't make any sense. The price moved away from the Kijun-sen line two or three times by 10-15 pips, but by the beginning of the US session, it was clear that there would be no movement. Nevertheless, traders could have opened one or two trades near this line, and naturally, both closed with a small loss. Unfortunately, there's nothing that can be done about it, although we warned you that there were no significant events on Wednesday, which meant that volatility would remain low.
On Friday, a new COT report for August 1 was released. In the last 10 months, COT reports fully corresponded to what is happening in the market. The chart above clearly shows that the net position of major traders (the second indicator) began to grow in September 2022 and at about the same time the euro started climbing too. In the last 5-6 months, the net position has not risen but the euro remains at very high levels. At the moment, the net position of non-commercial traders is bullish and remains strong. The euro keeps climbing against the US dollar.
I have already mentioned the fact that a fairly high value of the net position signals the end of an uptrend. This is also confirmed by the first indicator where the red and green lines are very far from each other. Usually, it precedes the end of the trend. During the last reporting week, the number of long positions of the non-commercial group of traders fell by 10,500 and the number of short ones by 5,400. The net position decreased by 5,100 contracts. The number of long positions is higher than the number of short ones of non-commercial traders by 172,000. This is a very large gap as the difference is almost threefold. Even without COT reports, it is obvious that the euro should decline but speculators are still in no hurry to sell.
On the 1H chart, the downtrend persists but the pair is currently trading within a sideways channel. We believe that the euro should fall in the medium-term period. Currently, the price is below all the lines of the Ichimoku indicator. There are hardly any important reports this week, so movements might resemble a flat.
On August 10, traders should pay attention to the following key levels: 1.0762, 1.0806, 1.0868, 1.0943, 1.1043, 1.1092, 1.1137, 1.1185, 1.1274, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.1031) and Kijun-sen (1.0987) lines. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are support and resistance levels that can be used to lock in profits. Traders look for signals at rebounds and breakouts. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss orders at the breakeven level when the price moves in the right direction by 15 pips. This will protect against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false.
Today, there are no important events or reports lined up in the EU. On the other hand, the US will release its inflation data, which has a good chance of moving the pair from its current position. However, not only do we need movement from the pair, but for it to also leave the sideways channel on the hourly chart. And that might not happen.
Support and resistance levels are thick red lines near which the trend may end. They do not provide trading signals;
The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, plotted to the 1H timeframe from the 4H one. They provide trading signals;
Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price bounced earlier. They provide trading signals;
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns;
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the net position size for each category of traders;
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the net position size for the Non-commercial group.
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