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On Tuesday evening, the minutes of the November FOMC meeting were published. Many analysts consider this document secondary; indeed, it rarely contains important information that triggers a sharp increase in demand for a particular currency. This time was roughly the same. Nevertheless, the document contained quite interesting statements that need to be highlighted.
The first important point is that all committee members agreed that all future decisions would be based on economic statistics. How can this be deciphered? If inflation continues to decline, there is no need to raise the rate. If inflation rises, depending on how fast it accelerates, a positive decision on tightening may be made. If unemployment is rising and the labor market is contracting, the likelihood of a new hike is low. A new tightening is possible if the economy continues to accelerate and unemployment remains low with growing inflation. These four indicators (GDP, inflation, unemployment, and labor market) will be considered together at each meeting, and decisions will be made based on the data obtained.
The minutes also stated that labor market conditions have eased since the beginning of the year, and the current monetary policy has strongly pressured economic activity and inflation. Not all FOMC members are confident that the current rate can reduce inflation to the target level. Still, an increase will only be made with additional information.
Officials also noted that financial conditions in the United States have significantly tightened, and inflation may stop due to still high levels of economic activity. Committee participants also agreed that from now on, they should act cautiously. Still, some had previously said they would prefer to err on the side of excessive tightening rather than insufficient. All FOMC members supported the opinion that the rate should be kept at its current level until stable signs of inflation move toward 2%.
Based on the analysis conducted, the construction of a downward wave set continues. Targets around the 1.0463 mark have been perfectly worked out, and an unsuccessful attempt to break this mark indicated a transition to the construction of a corrective wave. Wave 2 or B has taken on a completed form, so in the near future, I expect the construction of an impulsive descending wave 3 or C with a significant decline in the pair. I still recommend selling with targets located below the low of wave 1 or A. While wave 2 or B takes on a more extended form, sales should be cautious or, even better to, wait for signals of the wave's completion.
The wave pattern of the pound/dollar pair suggests a decline within the descending trend segment. The maximum the British currency can count on is a correction. I recommend selling the pair with targets below the 1.2068 mark because wave 2 or B should ultimately end. Initially, sales should not be significant because there is always a risk of complicating the existing wave. Also, a contracting triangle is visible, which is a precursor to the completion of the movement.
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