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GBP/USD traded higher on Friday. This time, volatility was higher, and the dollar fell throughout the day, rightfully so, as dollar bulls weren't pleased with the latest U.S. reports. However, how could that happen when the dollar bulls are nowhere to be seen? Take note that the decline was not only limited to Friday, in fact, the dollar fell throughout the week without any substantial reasons. It appears that market participants have chosen the same strategy they used last year when the pound rose rapidly regardless of the fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop.
Currently, there is a clear ascending trendline with a strong upward slope. This angle shows that the movement is strong, and stable, without any significant retracements. Therefore, the only thing left to do is to buy the pair. The pound doesn't have any reason to rise further. The Federal Reserve is not planning to soften its stance, and it's difficult to predict what to expect from the Bank of England, whose economy has already entered a recession. We believe that the British central bank will start to ease monetary policy literally 1-2 meetings later than the Fed. The difference is small, and the state of the UK economy is much worse than the American one.
The trading signals on Friday were a bit of a letdown. At the beginning of the U.S. session, the price consolidated above the level of 1.2863 but failed to continue the upward movement. Subsequently, there was a consolidation below the level of 1.2863, but the price could not continue to fall either. In the first case, the corrective move covered 20 pips, so the long position closed with a Stop Loss to breakeven. In the second short position, one could gain only 10 pips of profit. However, buyers could stay in longs since the price crossed the level of 1.2786 on Thursday.
COT reports on the British pound show that the sentiment of commercial traders has frequently changed in recent months. The red and blue lines, which represent the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, constantly intersect and, in most cases, remain close to the zero mark. According to the latest report on the British pound, the non-commercial group opened 10,300 buy contracts and closed 1,700 short ones. As a result, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 12,000 contracts in a week. Despite the fact that the net position of speculators is growing, the fundamental background still does not provide a basis for long-term purchases of the pound sterling.
The non-commercial group currently has a total of 102,000 buy contracts and 43,900 sell contracts. The bulls have a big advantage. However, in recent months, we have repeatedly encountered the same situation: the net position either increases or decreases, the bulls or the bears either have the advantage. Since the COT reports do not provide an accurate forecast of the market's behavior at the moment, we have to scrutinize the technical picture and economic reports. The technical analysis suggests that there's a possibility that the pound could show a pronounced downward movement, but there is currently no sell signal on any timeframe.
On the 1H chart, GBP/USD resumed the uptrend. The macroeconomic data and the fundamental background do not support the British pound at all, but we have already seen something similar in the second half of 2023. Back then, the British pound also rose for no apparent reasons. The only option is to follow the trend. If the price consolidates below the trendline, it may provide hope for at least a small correction of the dollar.
As of March 11, we highlight the following important levels: 1.2215, 1.2269, 1.2349, 1.2429-1.2445, 1.2516, 1.2605-1.2620, 1.2691, 1.2786, 1.2863, 1.2981-1.2987. The Senkou Span B (1.2653) and Kijun-sen (1.2781) lines can also serve as sources of signals. Don't forget to set a Stop Loss to breakeven if the price has moved in the intended direction by 20 pips. The Ichimoku indicator lines may move during the day, so this should be taken into account when determining trading signals.
On Monday, the UK and the U.S. economic calendar is empty. Volatility will likely fall to the lowest levels, and the pair may attempt to correct towards the trendline. However, the bullish bias persists. So for now, we can expect the pound to rise.
Support and resistance levels are thick red lines near which the trend may end. They do not provide trading signals;
The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, plotted to the 1H timeframe from the 4H one. They provide trading signals;
Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price bounced earlier. They provide trading signals;
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns;
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the net position size for each category of traders;
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the net position size for the Non-commercial group.
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