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Today marked the conclusion of meetings of two of the world's major central banks, Japan and Australia. The decisions of both were in line with economists' forecasts, yet caused unexpected movements. Both the yen and the Australian dollar weakened after the central banks announced their policy decisions. While the Reserve Bank of Australia left its interest rate unchanged at 4.35%, causing the Australian dollar to suffer losses, the Bank of Japan raised the interest rate to 0% for the first time since 2007, ending eight years of negative interest rates and abandoning its yield-curve control policy. Following the meeting, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the bank would continue to purchase Japanese government bonds at the same volume as before. He also added that, if necessary, the regulator would consider options for broad easing, including those used in the past. These statements likely became a negative factor for the yen, which sharply weakened after the Bank of Japan's meeting.
The Australian dollar unexpectedly came under pressure, as mentioned earlier, despite reassuring statements from Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock who expressed the need to be much more confident about inflation coming down to consider a rate cut. Here, investors likely paid attention to Bullock's statement that despite "encouraging signs that inflation is moderating, the economic outlook remains uncertain," fueling talks that the RBA might soon start easing its monetary policy as well.
After the meetings of the BoJ and RBA, market participants will await the Federal Reserve's meeting, whose outcome is due on Wednesday. Nearly all economists are confident that the Fed will refrain from any changes in its monetary policy parameters. Meanwhile, investors are hoping that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will signal the timing of the start of its easing monetary policy cycle. However, given the recently published US inflation data, which recorded an acceleration instead of the expected slowdown, Powell may speak in favor of a later start to the easing cycle, not ruling out the possibility of an interest rate increase. In this case, the dollar is expected to resume gains, with its DXY index rising above the 104.00 mark.
At the time of preparing this article, the DXY was near the 103.63 mark, supported by the persisting yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds above the 4.30% mark.
On Thursday, the central banks of Switzerland and the United Kingdom will hold their meetings. Both currencies issued by these banks, the Swiss franc and the pound sterling, remain under pressure against the US dollar today.
Economists do not expect changes in the monetary policy parameters of the SNB and the Bank of England. At the same time, they do not rule out that BoE officials might signal an earlier start to the cycle of reducing borrowing costs than the markets currently estimate. Despite the still high level of inflation in the UK, it is slowing down. The next set of inflation data for the UK will be published on Wednesday, which will undoubtedly affect the regulator's policy decision. According to preliminary estimates, the annual consumer price index in February slowed down from 4.0% to 3.5%, and the core CPI eased from 5.1% to 4.6%. The annual retail price index to be released at the same time is estimated to have slowed down from 4.9% to 4.5% in February.
If statistics confirm a slowdown in UK inflation, and even if the Bank of England keeps its interest rate unchanged at 5.25% on Thursday, the British pound is expected to lose value due to the high likelihood of dovish accompanying statements from BoE leaders, signaling an imminent easing of monetary policy.
In this case, the GBP/USD pair will most likely extend losses to the key support level of 1.2560, separating the medium-term bull market from the bear one. Technical indicators on the daily price chart also indicate the dominance of sellers (for more details, see GBP/USD: trading scenarios on March 19, 2024).
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