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The wave analysis of the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD pair remains unchanged. We are currently observing the construction of the presumed wave 3 in 3 or c the downward trend section. If this is the case, the decline in quotes will continue for quite some time, as the first wave of this section completed its construction around the 1.0450 mark. Therefore, the third wave of this trend section should end below.
The market gradually reduces demand for the euro, although the news background fully supports the US dollar. The unsuccessful attempt to break through the 1.0955 mark, equivalent to 61.8% according to Fibonacci, indicated the completion of the construction of wave 2 in 3 or c. Therefore, there is potential for a decrease in the pair, and it is significant.
Is there a possibility of a different wave analysis? There always is. However, if since October 3rd of last year, we have been observing a new upward trend section, then the last downward wave does not fit into any structure, which cannot be. Therefore, an upward section is only possible with a strong complication of the wave analysis.
The divergence between rates will continue to stimulate sellers.
The EUR/USD pair rate rose by 15 basis points on Monday. After a decrease of 200 points, 15 points is not even a correction. In essence, the market today took an additional day off and is not trading today. The news background on Monday is weak. Movements in the market may be more active in the second half of the day, as American sessions always have higher volatility. But the first half of the day passed in complete calm.
In the morning in the European Union, a report on industrial production for February was released. It became known that production volumes grew by 0.8%, as market participants expected. Therefore, this report was already priced in, and we have not seen any market reaction. The European currency could have been used today for a slight recovery. The decline last week was strong, and the attempt to break through the 1.0637 mark, equivalent to 100.0% according to Fibonacci, was unsuccessful. Therefore, a retreat from the reached lows would have been expected. However, a breakthrough of the 1.0637 mark, which cannot be completely ruled out, will indicate the market's readiness for a new decrease in demand for the euro. Logical after the events of the past two weeks, when the US inflation report forced the Fed to maintain a "hawkish" position for a very long time, and the labor market and unemployment report in the US allowed the Fed to maintain a "hawkish" position for as long as necessary.
Based on the above, I expect the continued strengthening of the US dollar. The question is only whether it will continue without a pause or whether there will be a few days of rest.
General conclusions.
Based on the EUR/USD analysis, the construction of a bearish set of waves continues. Waves 2 or b and 2 in 3 or c are completed, so in the near future, I expect the continuation of the construction of an impulsive downward wave 3 in 3 or c with a significant decrease in the pair. I consider sales with targets near the calculated mark of 1.0463, as the news background favors the dollar. The required signal for sale near the 1.0880 mark was formed (an unsuccessful attempt to break through).
On the higher wave scale, it can be seen that the presumed wave 2 or b, which in length exceeded 61.8% according to Fibonacci from the first wave, may be completed. If this is indeed the case, then the scenario with the construction of wave 3 or c and a decrease in the pair below the 4-figure mark has begun to be implemented.
The main principles of my analysis:
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