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Analysis of transactions and tips on trading the British pound
The price test of 1.2709 came at a time when the MACD indicator was starting to move down from zero, confirming the pound sale scenario. As a result, the downward movement amounted to just over 15 points, which was the end. Yesterday's speech by the governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, did not impress traders, which cannot be said about today's speech, since now the politician has inflation data for April this year in his arsenal, and these data cannot but rejoice. The sharp slowdown in annual price growth allows the regulator to act more gently, which will probably be announced today during parliamentary hearings on the Bank of England's monetary policy report. This may provoke new pound purchases in an upward trend, so be extremely careful with sales today. It is better to abandon them altogether and act on the decline and any corrections to continue the growth of GBP/USD. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Buy signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today when I reach the entry point in the area of 1.2770 (green line on the chart) to grow to the level of 1.2815 (thicker green line on the chart). In the area of 1.2815, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (counting on a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from the level). It will be possible to count on the pound's growth today in the continuation of the development of the bull market. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to grow from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the case of two consecutive price tests of 1.2740, at a time when the MACD indicator will be in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal of the market. We can expect an increase to the opposite levels of 1.2770 and 1.2815.
A sell signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after updating the level of 1.2740 (the red line on the chart), leading to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target of sellers will be the 1.2703 level, where I'm going to exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (counting on a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). It is possible to sell the pound only after an unsuccessful consolidation in the area of the local maximum and soft statements by Andrew Bailey. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its decline.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the case of two consecutive price tests of 1.2770, when the MACD indicator will be in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal of the market. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.2740 and 1.2703.
What's on the chart:
The thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy a trading instrument;
The thick green line is the estimated price where you can place Take Profit or fix profit yourself, since further growth is unlikely above this level;
The thin red line is the entry price at which a trading instrument can be sold;
The thick red line is the estimated price where you can place Take Profit or fix profit yourself, since further decline is unlikely below this level;
The MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important. Novice Forex traders need to make decisions about entering the market very carefully. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate. If you decide to trade during the news release, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can lose the entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use money management but trade in large volumes.
Remember that a clear trading plan, following the example I presented above, is necessary for successful trading. Spontaneous trading decision-making based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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