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The test of the 156.56 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's further upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy. Waiting for Scenario 2 to sell still needs to be worked out. In the afternoon, the US existing home sales figures are expected, and weak data might lead to a sell entry if all conditions are met. More importantly, traders will react to the minutes from the May FOMC meeting. A hawkish stance from the Fed could push the pair higher, while mixed views on future actions might weaken the dollar's position. I plan to act based on implementing Scenarios 1 and 2 for the intraday strategy.
Scenario 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at the entry point around 156.65 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 156.91 (thicker green line). Around 156.91, I will exit the buy trades and open sell trades in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from the level). The pair's growth today can be expected to continue the trend, but this requires a hawkish FOMC minute. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.
Scenario 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 156.38 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to anpupward market reversalGrowth to the opposite levels of 156.65 and 156.91 can be expected.
Scenario 1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after updating the 156.38 level (red line on the chart), leading to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 156.11 level. I will exit the sell trades and immediately open buy trades in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return if it fails to consolidate near the daily high. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to fall from it.
Scenario 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 156.65 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline to the opposite levels of 156.38 and 156.11 can be expected.
Beginner forex traders should make entry decisions very cautiously. To avoid sharp price fluctuations, it is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports are released. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
Remember, you need a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above for successful trading. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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