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There were no tests of the levels I identified in the first half of the day. As a result, suitable entry points into the market could not be found. The absence of UK statistics affected intraday volatility, maintaining fairly high chances of continuing the downward trend clearly observed last Friday. Ahead of us are figures for the Empire Manufacturing Index, as well as speeches by FOMC members John Williams and Patrick T. Harker. Both policymakers are known for their dovish approach to interest rates, and in case of contrary statements, the pound may decline again. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound when the entry point reaches around 1.2688 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to the level of 1.2717 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 1.2717, I will exit the buys and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from the level). A rise in the pound today can be expected only after dovish statements from Federal Reserve representatives. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.2657, at a moment when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the market upwards. Expect a rise towards the levels of 1.2688 and 1.2717.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after it updates the level of 1.2657 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline of the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 1.2629, where I will exit the sales and immediately open buys in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers will show their strength in case of unsuccessful attempts to return to the daily high. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.2688, at a moment when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the downward market. Expect a decline towards the levels of 1.2657 and 1.2629.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It's best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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