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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen
The upward trend in the pair continues. The test of the 158.23 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was beginning to move upward from the zero mark, leading to the realization of scenario #1 for buying the dollar to continue the trend. As a result, the pair rose by more than 30 pips, but we did not quite reach the target level of 158.60. Strong US statistics in the second half of the day—especially regarding new housing starts and building permits—may allow USD/JPY to continue its rise. Weekly initial jobless claims data in the US has little impact on the market when it aligns with average values. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when it reaches the entry point around 158.55 (green line on the chart), aiming for a rise to the 158.92 level (thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.92, I will exit the buy trades and open sell trades in the opposite direction (aiming for a 30-35 point move back from the level). Expect the pair to rise today in continuation of the upward trend, but only after very strong US data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 158.34 price when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Expect growth towards the opposite levels of 158.55 and 158.92.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after the level of 158.34 (red line on the chart) is updated, leading to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 158.04, where I will exit the sell trades and open buy trades in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20-25 point move back from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of an unsuccessful attempt to touch the daily high and weak real estate market statistics. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 158.55 price when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. Expect a decline towards the opposite levels of 158.34 and 158.04.
Beginner traders in the Forex market should make market entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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