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USD/JPY
The USD/JPY pair is not even considering a decline. Investors, as indicated by their sentiments in business reports, do not believe in prolonged currency interventions by the Bank of Japan. We are sensitive to the mood of the Japanese central bank and, from a technical standpoint, expect an intervention not higher than 161.00. The upper boundary of the price channel and the Fibonacci 110.0% level converge at this level. The price could also retreat from the target level of 160.40.
We are also anticipating a correction in the stock market, which could be painful for bulls who are active. A drop will pull down the USD/JPY pair and yen cross rates. On the 4-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator has discharged from the overbought zone and is now ready to support the dollar in its battle against the yen with its own growth.
With this sentiment, the price can easily overcome the April 29 peak and move towards the target level of 160.40. However, both the price and Marlin can form a divergence from this level. If the price falls below the MACD line, below the mark of 158.85, this will be the first serious sign of a price reversal under consideration.
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