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On Friday, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement and reached the corrective level of 23.6% (1.0843) by the end of the day. A rebound from this level, followed by a second rebound, allows traders to expect a reversal and some decline in quotes toward the support zone of 1.0785–1.0797. Consolidation of the pair's rate below this zone will allow for further decline of the euro towards the levels of 1.0760 and 1.0722. Consolidation above the 1.0843 level will increase the likelihood of continued growth towards the next Fibonacci level of 0.0%–1.0917.
The wave situation has become more complex. A new upward wave has broken the peak of the previous wave, while the last completed downward wave failed to break the low of the previous wave. Therefore, there were two signs of a trend change from "bearish" to "bullish." Last week, bulls received support from a significant informational background, which led to a confident growth of the pair. From the level of 1.0843, it is quite possible to expect a corrective "bearish" wave to form.
The informational background on Friday was very strong and important. The number of new jobs created in the non-farm sector was 206 thousand, compared to expectations of 190 thousand. Thus, the dollar could have shown growth on Friday if not for one "but." The values of the two previous months were revised downward, and it turned out that the total number of new jobs over the past three months was below forecasts. Besides, the US unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, significantly away from the minimum level of 3.4%. Wages grew by 3.9%, which matched traders' expectations. However, even the first two reports were enough for the dollar to continue falling. Last week was very gloomy for the US currency, and I doubt the informational background will improve for it this week. Thus, I can only count on a corrective wave within the framework of the new "bullish" trend.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the euro after forming a new "bullish" divergence at the CCI indicator and rebounding from the corrective level of 61.8% (1.0714). Later, the pair consolidated above the Fibonacci level of 50.0% (1.0794), allowing for continued growth towards the next corrective level of 38.2% (1.0876). No emerging divergences are observed today at any indicator.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
During the last reporting week, speculators closed 4094 long positions and opened 12288 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group turned "bearish" a few weeks ago and is currently strengthening. The total number of long positions speculators hold is now 167 thousand, while short positions amount to 175 thousand.
The situation will continue to change in favor of the bears. I see no long-term reasons to buy the euro, as the ECB has begun to ease monetary policy. This will reduce the yield of bank deposits and government bonds, which will remain at high levels in America for several months, making the dollar more attractive to investors. According to COT reports, the potential for a decline in the euro is also substantial. Currently, the number of short positions among professional players is growing.
News Calendar for the US and the Eurozone:
The economic events calendar contained no significant entries on July 8. Therefore, the influence of the informational background on trader sentiment will be absent today.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:
Sales of the pair are possible on the hourly chart with a rebound from the 1.0843 level with the target zone of 1.0785–1.0797. Upon closing below this zone, new sales are possible with targets at 1.0760 and 1.0722. The euro is neither immortal nor omnipotent; it cannot grow indefinitely. Upon closing above the specified zone, purchases were possible with a target of 1.0843. This target has been met. New purchases are possible on a rebound from the zone of 1.0785–1.0797 with a target of 1.0843 or upon closing above 1.0843 with a target of 1.0917.
Fibonacci levels are constructed between 1.0602–1.0917 on the hourly chart and between 1.0450–1.1139 on the 4-hour chart.
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