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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued to rise on Wednesday towards the corrective level of 127.2% at 1.3054. Yesterday, the bulls were unable to push the pair to this value. Today, they may make another attempt to reach it. A rebound from it will favor the American currency and some decline towards the level of 1.2931. Securing the pair's rate above 1.3054 will increase the likelihood of further growth in the pound.
The situation with the waves changed last week. The previous downward wave (which started forming on June 12) managed to break the low of the last downward wave, and the new upward wave (still forming now) managed to break the peak of the previous upward wave. Thus, we got the first sign of a trend reversal to "bullish" after a "bearish" trend that did not materialize. The growth of the pound may continue. I have many doubts about the sustainability of such a trend, but graphic analysis clearly shows what to expect in the near future.
The informational background on Wednesday allowed the pound to take at least a small pause in its perpetual growth, but bullish traders once again found a "silver lining." This time, the reason for the rise of the British currency was the inflation report in the UK, which did not show a decline for June. Traders immediately concluded that inflation had stalled and that the Bank of England would not lower the rate in August. The fairly high inflation in the services sector is also noted, which the British regulator intends to control before easing monetary policy. The last thesis is just my assumption. The probability of a rate cut in August is 50/50. Inflation in the services sector is high, but inflation has already reached the target level. Its further slowdown may create problems for the regulator of a different kind. If high inflation and low economic growth rates are the current challenges, then inflation might be too weak in the future, which will also lead to low economic growth rates.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues to rise. Bull traders have attacked tirelessly in recent weeks and reached a maximum of 1.3044. As I mentioned, the pound had no significant obstacles on the way to this level. A rebound of quotes from this level, combined with a "bearish" divergence on the RSI indicator, and its overbought condition warns of a reversal in favor of the American currency. The dollar will strengthen at least a little in the next few days.
Commitments of Traders (COT) report:
The sentiment of traders in the "Non-commercial" category became even more "bullish" in the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 28,563, while the number of short positions increased by 5,914. Bulls still hold a solid advantage. The gap between long and short positions is already 85,000: 135,000 versus 50,000.
The pound still has prospects for a decline, but the COT reports and graphic analysis indicate otherwise. In the last three months, the number of long positions has increased from 98,000 to 135,000, while the number of short positions has decreased from 54,000 to 50,000. Over time, major players will again reduce their long positions or increase their short positions, as all possible factors for buying the British pound have already been worked out. However, it should be remembered that this is just an assumption. Graphic analysis still indicates the weakness of the bears, who could not even break the level of 1.2620.
News calendar for the USA and the UK:
On Thursday, the economic events calendar contains five entries, three of which have already been released and did not affect the pound. The impact of the informational background on market sentiment today is expected to be weak.
Forecast for GBP/USD and advice to traders:
Selling the pound is possible today on a rebound from 1.3044 on the 4-hour chart, with the target being the lower boundary of the ascending channel on the hourly chart. Buying could be considered on a consolidation above the level of 1.2931, with targets of 1.3011 and 1.3044. These targets have been reached. New purchases can be considered on a close above the level of 1.3044.
The Fibonacci grid levels are built from 1.2892 to 1.2298 on the hourly chart and from 1.4248 to 1.0404 on the 4-hour chart.
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