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On Friday, the EUR/USD pair continued its decline after consolidating below the 100.0% corrective level at 1.0917 towards the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.0858 and the lower line of the upward trend channel, which continues to characterize the current trader sentiment as "bullish." A rebound from this line or level will favor the euro and some growth towards 1.0917. Consolidation of the pair below the channel will allow for expectations of a "bearish" trend.
The wave pattern has become more complex. The last upward wave broke the peak of the previous wave and still needs to be completed, while the last completed downward wave did not break the low of the previous wave. Thus, there are two signs of a trend change from "bearish" to "bullish." The information background has been supporting bullish traders for several weeks. Therefore, bears currently have no opportunity to form even a corrective wave. There are no signs of a trend change to 'bearish' now.
On Friday, there was no information background, which the bearish traders took advantage of. However, the movement on Friday was more like profit-taking by the bulls. Within the upward channel, the sentiment remains "bullish." Closing below the channel may not indicate a 'bearish' trend but a corrective wave. Therefore, I would not hastily conclude a trend change to 'bearish' this week. The bears have the basis to attack, but they still need to implement it. Activity is currently low for both bulls and bears. There will be a few important events this week, and nothing interesting will happen in the market on Monday and Tuesday. Therefore, these two days may see traders operating within a narrow price range.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the 38.2% corrective level at 1.0876. Thus, the growth process may continue towards the next Fibonacci level at 23.6% – 1.0977. The CCI indicator formed a "bearish" divergence, allowing the pair to start falling. On the hourly chart, there is also a need to form a corrective wave, and there are sell signals with prospects of falling to the lower line of the upward channel. Consolidation below the 1.0876 level will allow for expectations of a stronger decline in the euro.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
In the last reporting week, speculators opened 14,108 long positions and closed 7,018 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group changed to "bearish" a few weeks ago, but bulls dominate again. The total number of long positions speculators hold now stands at 180,000, and short positions at 155,000.
The situation will continue to change in favor of the bears. I see no long-term reasons to buy euros, as the ECB has begun easing monetary policy, which will lower the yield on bank deposits and government bonds. They will remain high in the US for several months, making the dollar more attractive to investors. The potential for a decline in the euro looks significant, even according to COT reports. However, graphical analysis does not allow us to speak confidently about a strong decline in the euro.
News Calendar for the US and Eurozone:
The economic events calendar for July 22nd contains no important entries. The information background's influence on trader sentiment will be absent today.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:
The pair's sales were possible upon consolidation on the hourly chart below the 1.0917 level, with a target at 1.0858. These trades can now be kept open. Purchases will become possible upon a rebound from the 1.0858 level (or the lower line of the upward channel) on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.0917.
Fibonacci levels are constructed from 1.0917 to 1.0668 on the hourly chart and from 1.0450 to 1.1139 on the 4-hour chart.
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