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The forex market continues to tread water despite the release of economic reports. According to preliminary assessments, European business activity indices have all declined, while only the manufacturing sector's business activity index showed a decrease in the US. Conversely, the composite index and the services PMI data showed growth and exceeded forecasts. Nevertheless, this had no impact on the situation. The weak eurozone data only prevented the dollar from falling. Almost simultaneously, corporate media began promoting the idea of a rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in July. This idea may gain traction and pressure the market, contributing to the dollar's weakness. Considering that today's macro data will have a minor impact, as changes in unemployment claims are expected to be purely symbolic, the market will likely gradually move towards pushing for the dollar's decline.
EUR/USD is in a corrective phase, trading from the lower area of the psychological level 1.0950/1.1000. As a result, the quote has dropped more than 100 pips, which fits within the cyclical component of the upward trend.
On the 4-hour chart, the RSI indicator is moving in the lower area of the 30/50 range. However, it touched the oversold level, indicating an excessive volume of short positions in the euro.
During the same time frame, the Alligator's MAs point downwards, aligning with the corrective cycle's direction.
The euro may reach the 1.0800 level if the corrective phase remains intact. However, based on the technical signs of the euro's oversold conditions in the short term, selling volumes may eventually fall, which, in theory, will lead to the end of the corrective cycle.
In terms of complex indicator analysis, the volume of long positions may likely rise in the short term. Meanwhile, the bearish bias persists in the intraday period.
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