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Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the European Currency
The price test at 1.0791 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the euro as part of the downtrend's continuation. However, as you can see on the chart, it didn't lead to a new drop in the pair, resulting in the realization of losses. I did not make purchases at the price of 1.0811, as by the time of the level test, the MACD had moved significantly away from the zero mark. In the second half of the day, we will deal with the following fundamental statistics: the unemployment level, changes in the number of non-agricultural sector employees in the USA, changes in the number of employees in the private sector of the economy, changes in average hourly wage, which is also very important, and the share of the economically active population. In case of poor statistics and another increase in the unemployment rate for the fourth month in a row, the pressure on the U.S. dollar will clearly increase, leading to the strengthening of the euro and a significant correction by the end of the week. Strong statistics will limit the pair's upward potential. For the intraday strategy, I plan to follow scenario No. 1 without considering the MACD indicator readings, as I expect strong and directed movement.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches the area of 1.0851 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to the level of 1.0893. At the point of 1.0893, I will exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, calculating a movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. You can only count on a strong upward movement of the euro today after weak U.S. data, which should not be ruled out. Note: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive price tests at 1.0816 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a market reversal upwards. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.0851 and 1.0893 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I will sell the euro after reaching the level of 1.0816 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.0765, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy the euro in the opposite direction (calculation on a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of strong statistics continuing the downtrend. Note: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0851 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.0816 and 1.0765 can be expected.
What's on the Chart:
Important: For beginners in the Forex market, it is crucial to exercise caution when making market entry decisions. It's best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp fluctuations in exchange rates. If you decide to trade during news releases, it is essential to always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use risk management and trade large volumes.
Remember: Successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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