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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the British Pound
Due to the extremely low volatility of the pound and the lack of significant fundamental statistics from the UK in the first half of the day, I did not execute any trades. The test of the level I identified at 1.3031 occurred by the time I was writing this new forecast, but it happened when the MACD was far from the zero line, so I missed that entry point. There is no statistical data scheduled for the U.S. session, and only the later publication of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes is expected. A dovish set of minutes would provide a reason to buy the pound as part of the ongoing upward trend. If the meeting participants don't hint at a dovish monetary policy, the pound could decline against the dollar, reducing the reasons to buy GBP/USD ahead of the Fed Chair's speech at the end of the week. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound upon reaching the entry point around 1.3050 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.3083 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.3083, I will exit the purchases and open sales, targeting a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction. The pound is likely to rise today as a continuation of the upward trend, but only after a dovish set of minutes from the Fed. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3019 price when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. A rise to the target levels of 1.3050 and 1.3083 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after the 1.3019 level (red line on the chart) is updated, leading to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.2978 level, where I will exit the sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction, targeting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction. Sellers will assert themselves if there is no active action around the new weekly high, and a hawkish stance from any Fed member. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the 1.3050 level is tested twice when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the target levels of 1.3019 and 1.2978 can be expected.
Key Elements on the Chart:
Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make decisions about market entry very carefully. Before important fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use proper money management and trade with large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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