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Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the British Pound
The test of the 1.3120 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. The second test of this level shortly afterward, with the MACD in the overbought zone, confirmed the correct entry point to sell the pound, resulting in a 15-point drop. The UK services PMI data matched economists' expectations, which limited the pair's upward potential in the first half of the day. Now, we await U.S. trade balance data, job openings, labor turnover, and changes in factory orders. Whether this data will sufficiently move the market is doubtful, so it's better to stick with selling the pound in anticipation of a continued downward correction. For the intraday strategy, I plan to act according to either Scenario #1 or Scenario #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today when the price reaches the 1.3120 level (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 1.3150 (thicker green line on the chart). At the 1.3150 level, I will close buy positions and open sell positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30-35 point movement from that level. The pound is likely to rise today if U.S. data comes in weaker than expected. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and beginning to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the 1.3103 level is tested twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. A rise toward the 1.3120 and 1.3150 levels is expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound after a break below the 1.3103 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick drop in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3074 level, where I will exit sell positions and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 20-25 point rebound from this level. Sellers are likely to emerge if U.S. statistics come out strong. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and beginning to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the 1.3120 level is tested twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A drop toward the 1.3103 and 1.3074 levels is expected.
Beginner traders in the forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use proper money management and trade with large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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