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On Monday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the support zone of 1.1070–1.1081 and continued its upward movement toward the corrective level of 200.0% at 1.1165. The price may not reach this level because doing so would imply breaking the peak of the previous upward wave. In this case, the trend would shift to a "bullish" one. From current levels, a reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar and a return to the support zone of 1.1070–1.1081 are possible.
The wave situation has become a bit more complicated, but overall, it doesn't raise any concerns. The last completed downward wave broke the low of the previous wave, and the last completed upward wave did not break the peak of the wave from August 26. Thus, at this time, the "bearish" trend formation continues. It may be short-lived, but for it to be canceled, a close above the last peak from September 6 at 1.1152 is needed. Until then, I maintain a bearish outlook on the pair.
There was no significant news on Monday, but bullish traders didn't see a reason to pause. Such movements ahead of the eagerly awaited Fed meeting raise doubts about their sustainability. These moves may be manipulative. While the market shows readiness to rise ahead of the FOMC meeting, a reversal could easily follow. I consider yesterday's rise a temporary anomaly that should be corrected. Today, I expect the pair to decline. From today's information background, I highlight U.S. reports on industrial production and retail sales, which may sway FOMC members toward easing monetary policy by 25 basis points or even 50 basis points. At the moment, the market is still undecided on which scenario is more likely, so it's trying to account for both. In my view, from Thursday to Monday, the dollar fell enough that it should grow at least until the FOMC meeting.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 76.4% corrective level at 1.1013 and rose to the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.1139. A rebound from this level has occurred for now. The CCI indicator has formed two "bearish" divergences, significantly increasing the probability of a reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar. A decline may begin toward the level of 1.1013. A breakout above 1.1139 could lead to further growth toward the next Fibonacci corrective level of 127.2% at 1.1286.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
During the last reporting week, speculators closed 23,148 long positions and 4,563 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group turned "bearish" a few months ago, but now the bulls are once again actively dominating. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 193,000, while short positions amount to only 111,000.
I still believe the situation will continue to shift in favor of the bears. I don't see long-term reasons to buy the euro. I also want to note that a Fed rate cut in September is already priced into the market with a very high probability. The potential for the euro to decline looks significant. However, it's important to remember that technical analysis currently does not show clear signs of a significant euro drop. Additionally, the information background regularly creates obstacles for the dollar's progress.
News Calendar for the U.S. and Eurozone:
On September 17, the economic calendar includes three noteworthy entries. The influence of the information background on trader sentiment today may be moderate.
Forecast for EUR/USD and Advice for Traders:
New sales of the pair are possible on a rebound from the 1.1139 level on the 4-hour chart with a target of 1.0984. I would still avoid buying the pair, as the euro's rise on Thursday amid ECB policy easing, and especially on Monday, remains unclear. However, bullish factors could appear later this week.
Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.0917 to 1.0668 on the hourly chart and from 1.1139 to 1.0603 on the 4-hour chart.
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