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The media once again demonstrated their ability to manipulate the market, creating a buzz about a possible further Federal Reserve rate cut by another 50 basis points. The trigger was the S&P/CaseShiller housing price data, which remained unchanged. Leading American media outlets immediately began publishing reports suggesting that the Federal Open Market Committee would lower interest rates again by November 7 and by the same scale as in the previous meeting. Naturally, the dollar immediately began to lose ground.
However, the truth is that the data on real estate prices have minimal impact on inflation in general, especially when it comes to data from a private agency that does not account for the entire spectrum of housing in the United States. In other words, the data is incomplete. Moreover, the emphasis is placed on monthly data, while regulators look at annual figures. And the annual data from the same S&P/CaseShiller turned out to be slightly different, showing a slowdown in growth rates from 6.5% to 5.9%, compared to the forecast of 5.8%. Considering national data, housing prices rose by 0.1% month-over-month, which matched expectations. On an annual basis, the growth rate of housing prices slowed from 5.3% to 4.5%, whereas the forecast predicted a slowdown to 4.2%. So, if we try to conclude this data, all indicators, except for a single one, provide no grounds for such a significant rate cut. Yet, the media seemingly overlooked these facts.
Indeed, the media can tremendously influence market participants' sentiments, bordering on outright manipulation. Unfortunately, this has been happening more and more frequently lately. However, this usually occurs in conditions of either an empty economic calendar or a lack of significant data, just as it did yesterday. Unfortunately, the economic calendar will remain utterly empty until next week. This means the media can blow any insignificant news out of proportion at any moment, leading to sharp and unpredictable fluctuations. In such a situation, one must closely monitor the news feed. The main thing to remember is that once the market starts moving under the influence of certain news, this process can take some time, sometimes lasting for hours.
The EUR/USD pair nearly reached the 1.1200 level during its upward momentum, indicating an increase in the volume of long positions. A detailed Forex market analysis reveals that the euro's rise is linked to the widespread selling of dollar positions.
In the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is moving within the 50/70 buyer zone, confirming the increase in long positions in the euro.
Regarding the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average lines (MA) point upwards, aligning with the current price movement.
Expectations and Prospects
For the next growth phase, the price needs to stabilize above the 1.1200 mark. If this scenario unfolds, there is a high probability of reaching the July 2023 peak at 1.1276. Otherwise, we might see a pullback from the 1.1200 level.
The complex indicator analysis for short-term, intraday, and medium-term periods suggests an upward trend.
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