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On Wednesday, the euro broke through the significant support level of 1.0950, which the price had tested on October 4th, August 15th, and July 17th. The price had also reversed near this level in earlier instances in 2023. With this breakthrough, the target level of 1.0882 has opened up, and even the Marlin oscillator is turning upward, albeit very sluggishly.
The situation remains bearish, but we are not forecasting further declines due to the rapid increase in risk appetite—yesterday, the S&P 500 set a new all-time high, government bonds are being sold off, and gold prices are falling. However, since the signs of a reversal are very weak, today is also likely to be uneventful. The minimum goal for the euro is to close the day with a white candlestick. Ideally, this close should occur above the 1.0950 level to avoid creating technical consolidation below it.
The price and the Marlin oscillator have formed a divergence on the four-hour chart. The oscillator's signal line (which indicates trend continuation) has consolidated and is preparing to move into positive territory. The price consolidation above the 1.0950 level in this timeframe would be a positive sign of a reversal or, more precisely, a confirmation of the divergence.
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