17.10.202407:25 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Pay Attention to on October 17? A Review of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

Several macroeconomic events are scheduled for Thursday, but they may all be overshadowed by the European Central Bank meeting and Christine Lagarde's speech. In the Eurozone, for example, the second estimate of September's inflation will be released. Second estimates rarely differ from the first, so there is little expectation of a market reaction to this event. In the U.S., reports on retail sales, industrial production, and jobless claims will be published. These reports could attract market interest, but in the EUR/USD pair, the market will likely be focused on the outcome of the ECB meeting. The GBP/USD pair may react to these U.S. reports but could just as easily follow the EUR/USD pair due to the strong correlation between the euro and the pound.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among Thursday's key events, the ECB meeting and Christine Lagarde's speech stand out. The ECB is 90% likely to lower key rates, but what Lagarde will say at the press conference remains uncertain. The market is debating whether the October easing is a move brought forward from December or if the central bank will also lower rates in December, making it the fourth cut. If the latter, the euro could continue its decline. If it's the former, a bounce and correction could follow.

General Conclusions:

On the penultimate trading day of the week, the euro may continue its downward movement, but much will depend on what Lagarde says. The British pound may follow the euro, but it could also react to the U.S. reports. Overall, there are currently no technical indications for expecting an upward movement.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes for the signal to form (bounce or break through the level). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades are opened around a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can generate many false signals or none at all. In any case, at the first signs of a flat market, it is better to stop trading.
4. Trading positions should be opened during the period from the start of the European session until the middle of the US session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
5. In the hourly time frame, it is recommended to trade based on MACD indicator signals only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (between 5 to 20 pips), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.
7. Upon passing 15-20 pips in the intended direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Support and Resistance Price Levels: These levels serve as targets when opening buy or sell positions. They can also be used as points to set Take Profit levels.

Red Lines: These represent channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred trading direction.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): The histogram and signal line serve as a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of trading signals.

Important Speeches and Reports (always found in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, trading should be done with maximum caution during their release, or you may choose to exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding movement.

For Beginners Trading on the Forex Market: It's essential to remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management is key to achieving long-term success in trading.