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On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair rose to the 161.8% corrective level at 1.0873 and then rebounded. The decline following the rebound was mild, but the uptrend has yet to resume. Today, the bulls will make a second attempt to breach the 1.0873 level, supported by the current news context. A consolidation above 1.0873 would increase the likelihood of continued growth toward the next target of 1.0929. Another rebound would indicate weakness among the bulls.
The wave structure raises no questions. The last completed upward wave (September 25-30) failed to surpass the previous peak, while the ongoing downward wave (still unfinished) has broken the low of the prior three waves. Thus, the pair is currently developing a new "bearish" trend, specifically its first wave. A corrective wave may now be forming, but the bulls have lost their initiative in any case. Regaining it would require significant effort, which may not be feasible in the short term.
The news on Wednesday gave the bulls some advantage. German inflation accelerated to 2%, and the Eurozone's GDP grew by 0.4% in the third quarter (exceeding the 0.2% expected by traders). Today, Eurozone inflation also rose to 2%. This indicates that the Eurozone economy is growing faster than expected, and inflation, after a long slowdown, is accelerating again. Rising inflation suggests the ECB might slow its pace of easing monetary policy, a "hawkish" factor for the euro. This justifies the bulls' attacks yesterday, which could continue today. In the U.S., however, there were positive reports too, such as the ADP employment data. The GDP report for Q3 was also strong, showing a 2.8% quarter-on-quarter growth. Bears had grounds for action as well but seem to be waiting for the Nonfarm Payrolls, unemployment rate, and the Fed's rate decision.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair rose to the 50.0% corrective level at 1.0872, but the bulls remain weak. A rebound from this level could signal a reversal in favor of the dollar, resuming the downtrend toward the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.0729. A consolidation above this level would indicate further growth toward 1.0935. Currently, no divergences are observed in any indicators.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
In the last reporting week, speculators closed 16,160 long positions and opened 29,514 short positions, shifting the "Non-commercial" sentiment to "bearish." The total long positions held by speculators now stand at 153,000, with 181,000 short positions.
For seven consecutive weeks, major players have been selling off the euro. This trend could be a precursor to a new "bearish" trend or a substantial global correction. The main factor that previously drove the dollar down—the anticipated easing by the Fed—has been factored in, leaving the market with fewer reasons to sell the dollar en masse. Although new reasons may emerge over time, the dollar's growth currently appears more likely. Graphical analysis also suggests the beginning of a "bearish" trend, so I am preparing for an extended decline in the EUR/USD pair.
News Calendar for the U.S. and Eurozone:
The economic calendar for October 31 includes several entries, with Eurozone inflation standing out. The impact of today's news on market sentiment could be moderate.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:
Sales of the pair are possible upon closing below the 1.0781–1.0797 zone on the hourly chart, targeting 1.0729, or following a rebound from the 1.0873 level. Purchases were possible from a rebound off the 1.0781–1.0797 zone, targeting 1.0873, which has been reached. New buys are possible upon closing above 1.0873, with a target of 1.0929.
Fibonacci levels are built from 1.1003–1.1214 on the hourly chart and from 1.1139–1.0603 on the 4-hour chart.
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