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On Thursday, GBP/USD turned in favor of the U.S. dollar on the hourly chart, securing a position below the support zone of 1.2892–1.2931, a level that had previously posed a challenge for bears. On Friday, the pair returned to this zone, and the U.S. news later today could prompt both buying and selling. Therefore, in my view, trying to predict where the pair will end up by tonight is not particularly useful.
The wave structure is straightforward. The last completed upward wave (September 26) did not break the peak of the previous wave, while the downward wave that has been forming for 26 days easily broke the low of the previous wave, located at 1.3311. Thus, the bullish trend is currently considered complete, and a bearish trend is forming. A corrective wave upward was expected from the 1.2931 level, but as I mentioned, technical indicators alone won't suffice—a strong buying impulse is required, and currently, there's little of that.
On Thursday, there was no news from the U.K., so traders focused on the U.S. PCE index, a key inflation measure that tracks changes in core consumer spending. The FOMC watches this closely. The dollar's strength yesterday reflects traders' understanding of this index's significance. The PCE index remained nearly unchanged in September from August, though the market had expected a slowdown. U.S. inflation initially slowed only slightly, and the PCE index did not decrease either. In my opinion, a rate cut of 0.50% in November is no longer in question, and the market's response to the PCE index suggests a readiness to continue buying the dollar. Today, we await the ISM report, Nonfarm Payrolls, and unemployment data. If they don't significantly underperform expectations, the bears could continue their active advance.
On the four-hour chart, the pair has rebounded from the 1.3044 corrective level, suggesting a continuation of the downward movement toward the next 61.8% corrective level at 1.2745. A bullish divergence in the CCI only provided a minor and brief correction. A rebound from the 1.2745 level could favor the pound and prompt some upward movement, though it may again be short-lived.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The sentiment among non-commercial traders became less bullish over the last reporting week but remained bullish overall. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 11,320, while the number of short positions increased by 94. Bulls still hold a significant lead, with a difference of 74,000 between long (140,000) and short (66,000) positions.
In my opinion, the pound remains under downward pressure, although the COT reports suggest otherwise. Over the past three months, long positions have increased from 135,000 to 140,000, while shorts rose from 50,000 to 66,000. I believe professional traders may gradually reduce their long positions or increase shorts (similar to the situation with the euro), as the bullish factors for the pound appear fully priced in. Graphical analysis suggests this process may begin soon, if it hasn't already, based on the current waves.
News Calendar for the U.S. and U.K.:
Friday's economic calendar includes four significant and impactful entries. The influence of this news on market sentiment for the rest of the day will be strong.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:
Selling opportunities existed on the four-hour chart after a rebound from the 1.3044 level, targeting 1.2931. Closing below the 1.2892–1.2931 zone allows for continued sales, targeting 1.2788–1.2801. The pound can be bought from the 1.2788–1.2801 zone, with a target of 1.2892–1.2931, but the bulls are very weak at the moment.
Fibonacci levels are constructed at 1.2892–1.2298 on the hourly chart and at 1.4248–1.0404 on the four-hour chart.
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