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On Monday, the EUR/USD pair returned to the 161.8% corrective level at 1.0873. A rebound from this level could signal a reversal in favor of the euro and a resumption of growth towards the resistance zone at 1.0929–1.0946. However, a close below 1.0873 would support the U.S. dollar, favoring a continued decline towards the support zone at 1.0781–1.0797.
The wave structure is clear. The last completed upward wave (September 25-30) failed to break the high of the previous wave, while the most recent downward wave breached the lows of the previous three waves. Thus, a new "bearish" trend is forming. A corrective wave is now beginning, but the bulls have already lost their initiative in the market. It will take a significant amount of effort to regain it, which may not be achievable in the near future.
The news flow was light on Monday, but this week holds numerous critical events that are likely to strongly influence trader sentiment. Today, the ISM Services Index is set to be released in the U.S. It is worth noting that the manufacturing index and the Nonfarm Payrolls report both came in below traders' expectations. Although it's hard to predict the ISM Services Index based on these reports, a negative trend seems to be emerging. Bulls might attempt a comeback today if they receive the necessary support. Additionally, monitor Christine Lagarde's speech closely. Recently, the market's expectations regarding the ECB's rate decisions have shifted slightly, but recent inflation reports from the EU and Germany show that there's still a way to go. This backdrop could support the euro, especially if the ECB slows monetary easing.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair closed above the 50.0% corrective level at 1.0872, suggesting a potential rise towards the next Fibonacci level at 61.8%, or 1.0935. The bullish divergence on the CCI indicator also provided support for the bulls. A rebound from the 1.0935 level would favor the U.S. dollar and indicate a resumption of the downward trend. However, this week's substantial news background is likely to impact the EUR/USD pair significantly.
Commitment of Traders (COT) Report:
During the latest reporting week, speculators opened 6,154 long positions and 27,934 short positions. The sentiment among "Non-commercial" traders shifted to "bearish." The total number of long positions held by speculators is now 159,000, while short positions stand at 209,000.
For the eighth consecutive week, major players have been shedding their positions in the euro. In my opinion, this suggests the onset of a new "bearish" trend or at least a strong global correction. The primary driver for the dollar's decline—expectations of FOMC monetary easing—has been priced in, and the market no longer has strong reasons to abandon the dollar en masse. While new reasons may emerge over time, a stronger U.S. dollar appears more likely. Technical analysis also indicates the beginning of a "bearish" trend, leading me to prepare for a prolonged decline in the EUR/USD pair.
News Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:
The economic calendar for November 5 includes at least two highly significant entries, likely to moderately influence market sentiment today.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:
Exercise caution with trades this week. The U.S. elections and the FOMC meeting may cause significant volatility and unpredictable movements. A rebound from 1.0873 could favor buying positions with a target range of 1.0929–1.0946 on the hourly chart.
Fibonacci levels are plotted from 1.1003–1.1214 on the hourly chart and from 1.1139–1.0603 on the 4-hour chart.
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