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In just a few hours, the next U.S. president will be announced. Currently, Donald Trump is leading, and the Republicans are taking control of the Senate. Stock markets turned upward yesterday, showing their reduced dependence on the particular individual in the White House. This trend offers a clue for the currency market: the trend towards risk may persist, and counter-dollar currencies could resume growth, potentially pushing out early dollar buyers. Consequently, we view this morning's decline in the euro and other currencies cautiously, as it might simply be closing Monday's opening gap, followed by a speculative surge.
The Marlin oscillator's signal line on the daily chart has touched the neutral zero line, and the gap is now closed. A reversal signal would be a return of the price above the 1.0882 level. After that, we'll watch for target levels at 1.0950 and 1.1010. A sign of a medium-term downward trend in the euro would be a daily close (today or tomorrow) below the 1.0777 level.
On the four-hour chart, the price has broken below the support of the MACD line (1.0833). If it consolidates below this level, a test of 1.0777 is likely.
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