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Analysis of trades and trading advice for the British pound
The test of the 1.2941 level occurred when the MACD indicator was significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. Given that the indicator had been in the overbought zone for a while, I decided not to wait for a second test of 1.2941 and sold the pound immediately after the first breakout. As a result, the pair declined by more than 30 points.
The Bank of England meeting results will soon be announced, followed by the FOMC decision on the key interest rate later today. A 0.25% rate cut is expected, but the focus will be on Jerome Powell's press conference, which is likely to influence market sentiment. A dovish stance could renew pressure on the U.S. dollar, while a hawkish tone might support further dollar growth. For intraday trading, I plan to implement Scenarios 1 and 2.
Scenario 1: I plan to buy the pound today near the 1.2920 entry point (green line on the chart), targeting 1.2960 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.2960, I will exit purchases and open short positions, aiming for a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction. The pound's upward movement today will depend on a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve.Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above zero and beginning to rise.
Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.2888 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This scenario limits the pair's downward potential and may lead to an upward reversal. Growth can be expected toward the resistance levels of 1.2920 and 1.2960.
Scenario 1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.2888 level is breached (red line on the chart), leading to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.2841, where I will exit sales and open buy positions, targeting a 20-25 point upward correction. Sellers will likely respond to signs that the Fed is hesitant about further rate cuts.Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below zero and beginning to decline.
Scenario 2: I also plan to sell the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.2920 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This scenario limits the pair's upward potential and may lead to a downward reversal. A decline can be expected toward the support levels of 1.2888 and 1.2841.
Important for Beginner Forex Traders:Beginner traders should be cautious when entering the market. Before major fundamental reports, staying out of the market can help avoid volatility. If trading during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you risk losing your entire deposit, especially if you trade large volumes without proper money management.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the example provided above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are generally ineffective for intraday traders.
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