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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair dropped on Friday to the support zone of 1.2611–1.2620, but no rebound occurred. Monday started with another drop in the pound, and by midday, the 1.2611–1.2620 zone might already be breached. If this happens, the decline could continue toward the next Fibonacci level of 200.0% at 1.2570. Market sentiment remains strongly bearish.
The current wave structure is clear. The last completed upward wave failed to break the previous peak. Meanwhile, the ongoing downward wave has breached the last two lows, signaling the continuation of the bearish trend. To indicate the end of this trend, the pair would need to rise above 1.3000 and close above the previous peak.
On Friday, U.S. economic data did not strongly support the bears. However, the morning news from the UK set a bearish tone for the entire day. The GDP estimate for the third quarter was revised lower, and industrial production fell by 0.5% in September, missing expectations. The UK economy showed modest growth in the first quarter of this year, but growth slowed in the second quarter and could approach zero in the third quarter. Industrial production is contracting more frequently than expanding, making Friday's decline in the pound understandable. I believe the bearish trend will continue, as there are few fundamental reasons to buy the pound. Support zones or levels may only temporarily pause the pair's decline, and significant growth for the pound seems unlikely without clear bullish signals.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has fallen to 1.2620. A rebound or further upward movement from this level seems unlikely. A close below 1.2620 increases the probability of further declines toward the next corrective level of 76.4% at 1.2565. Bullish divergences are currently insignificant for traders.
The sentiment among non-commercial traders turned more bullish during the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 745, while short positions fell by 11,711. Bulls maintain a significant advantage, with long positions totaling 120,000 versus 64,000 short positions.
Despite this, I believe the pound retains downward potential, and even the COT data indicates growing bearish positions. Over the last three months, long positions increased from 102,000 to 120,000, while short positions grew from 55,000 to 64,000. Over time, professional traders may continue reducing long positions or increasing shorts, as most factors supporting the pound have already been priced in. Technical analysis also supports continued declines in the pound.
The economic calendar for Monday contains no significant events. As such, the information background is unlikely to influence trader sentiment today.
Selling the pair was possible following a rebound from the 1.3044 level on the 4-hour chart, targeting 1.2931. This target was achieved twice. Subsequent targets at 1.2931, 1.2892, 1.2788–1.2801, 1.2752, and 1.2611–1.2620 have also been reached. A close below the 1.2611–1.2620 zone would justify holding sell positions. For now, I would advise against buying the pair in a bearish trend.
Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.3000–1.3432 on the hourly chart and from 1.2299–1.3432 on the 4-hour chart.
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