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On Monday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded again from the 323.6% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.0532 and began a new upward movement toward the 261.8% Fibonacci level at 1.0662. However, the growth remains very weak, and I have serious doubts about whether the 1.0662 level will be reached. The bulls remain passive and unable to influence price movements. A close below the 1.0532 level appears more likely and would likely signal further declines toward the 1.0420 level.
The wave structure raises no questions. The last completed wave upward failed to break the previous wave's peak, while the ongoing downward wave has already broken the last low. This confirms the continuation of the "bearish" trend. The bulls have completely lost control of the market. Regaining control would require significant effort, which seems unlikely in the near future. To break the current trend, the pair would need to rise above 1.0800, which appears improbable in the short term.
There was no significant news on Monday, although ECB President Christine Lagarde was scheduled to speak. However, her comments did not address monetary policy and therefore held little relevance for currency market participants. With no other notable developments during the day, trading activity was low. The euro has reached a level where further declines have become challenging. However, this is likely only enough to stabilize the currency, not to fuel any meaningful recovery. For the euro to rise, it would require informational triggers and renewed bullish momentum, both of which seem scarce this week. As a result, I do not expect significant growth in the euro in the near future.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair dropped to the 1.0603 level, where a bullish divergence on the CCI indicator suggests the possibility of a rise. However, such divergences have recently failed to translate into sustained upward movements. A rebound from 1.0603 could lead to further selling pressure, pushing the pair toward the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0436.
For the latest reporting week, speculators opened 103 long positions and closed 14,113 short positions. As a result, the sentiment among the "Non-commercial" group has turned bearish. Speculators now hold 160,000 long positions and 167,000 short positions.
For eight consecutive weeks, large traders have been reducing their positions in the European currency. In my view, this signals the start of a new "bearish" trend, or at least a strong correction on a global scale. The key factor behind the dollar's prior weakness – expectations of an easing FOMC monetary policy – has already been priced in. Currently, there are no compelling reasons for traders to sell the dollar. While such factors may emerge over time, further growth in the U.S. dollar remains the more probable scenario. Technical analysis also suggests the onset of a long-term "bearish" trend for EUR/USD. Therefore, I am preparing for a prolonged decline in the pair. The latest COT report does not indicate a shift toward a bullish trend.
The economic calendar for November 19 includes three less significant reports. The impact of these releases on market sentiment is expected to be minimal.
Sales could have been considered after the rebound from the 1.0781–1.0797 zone on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.0662. This target has been reached. Closing below this level allowed for continued short positions targeting 1.0603 and 1.0532, both of which have also been achieved. Yesterday, minimal-volume purchases targeting 1.0662 were possible. However, today's rebound from 1.0603 suggests the opportunity for new short positions.
Fibonacci retracement grids are built from 1.1003–1.1214 on the hourly chart and from 1.0603–1.1214 on the 4-hour chart.
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