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Trade Review and Tips for Trading the British Pound
The price test at 1.2698 occurred as the MACD indicator began moving upward from the zero line, confirming the correct entry point to buy the pound, especially after UK inflation data showed an increase. However, as shown on the chart, the pair failed to rise significantly. Later today, several interviews with US Central Bank representatives are expected.
A dovish stance from Federal Reserve representatives could weaken the US dollar, providing support for the British pound. Expectations of further Fed monetary easing, such as interest rate cuts or an extension of quantitative easing, make the dollar less attractive for investment, weakening its position when such news is released. In contrast, the pound may gain momentum due to increased interest in risk assets. Following today's UK inflation data, moderate expectations of a more cautious approach to rate cuts are likely to support demand for the pound later in the day. For today's intraday strategy, I will implement Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1:Buy the pound at 1.2678 (green line on the chart), targeting 1.2708. At 1.2708, close the position and consider selling in the opposite direction, expecting a 30-35 point decline. A strong rally in the pound today is only likely if the Fed adopts a dovish stance.Note: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and beginning to rise.
Scenario #2:Buy the pound if the price tests 1.2654 twice in quick succession while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This setup would limit the pair's downward potential and likely trigger a reversal. Target levels are 1.2678 and 1.2708.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1:Sell the pound after the price breaks below 1.2654 (red line on the chart), aiming for a decline to 1.2619. At 1.2619, close the position and consider buying in the opposite direction, expecting a 20-25 point rebound. Selling pressure is likely to increase if the Fed adopts a hawkish stance.Note: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and beginning to decline.
Scenario #2:Sell the pound if the price tests 1.2678 twice while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This setup would limit the pair's upward potential and likely trigger a reversal. Target levels are 1.2654 and 1.2619.
Important:Beginner Forex traders should exercise caution when entering the market. Avoid trading during the release of significant fundamental reports to prevent exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you trade during news events, always use stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you risk losing your deposit quickly, especially when trading large volumes without proper money management. Remember, successful trading requires a clear plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous decisions based on market conditions often lead to losses for intraday traders.
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