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The price test at 1.2640 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's bearish potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound. Shortly after, a second test of 1.2640 coincided with the MACD in the oversold area, confirming an optimal entry point to buy the pound. However, there was no significant upward movement, resulting in a loss. The pair continued to decline amid a lack of important statistics. It is now crucial to observe how traders react to the US labor market data. An increase in claims will likely weaken the US dollar, while a significant decrease may encourage further short positions in GBP/USD.
Additionally, speeches by FOMC members Ostan D. Goolsbee and Beth M. Hammack could significantly impact the dollar's strength. Goolsbee, known for his consensus-driven approach, is expected to highlight the importance of maintaining stable economic growth, signaling confidence in the resilience of the US economy. The speeches will likely address the current economic situation and future monetary policy. If Goolsbee and Hammack emphasize maintaining current interest rates, it may attract investors seeking higher yields from dollar-denominated assets. Markets are highly sensitive to such signals, potentially triggering renewed dollar buying. My intraday strategy will focus on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1:Today, I plan to buy the pound if the price reaches 1.2650 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.2671 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.2671, I will close the long position and initiate a short position, targeting a 30-35 point reversal. The pound is likely to rise only if Fed representatives adopt a dovish stance.Note: Before buying, verify that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and beginning to rise.
Scenario #2:I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.2630 price, with the MACD indicator in the oversold area. This should limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward reversal towards resistance levels at 1.2650 and 1.2671.
Scenario #1:I plan to sell the pound if the price reaches 1.2630 (red line on the chart), triggering a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.2605, where I will close the short position and initiate a long position, targeting a 20-25 point reversal. Sellers are likely to act if Fed representatives adopt a hawkish stance.Note: Before selling, verify that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and beginning to decline.
Scenario #2:I also plan to sell the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.2650 price, with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This should limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal towards support levels at 1.2630 and 1.2605.
For beginners in Forex trading, it is crucial to make decisions carefully. Before major economic reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you risk depleting your capital, especially if you trade large volumes without proper money management. A clear trading plan, like the one provided above, is essential for success. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions often lead to losses for intraday traders.
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