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Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen
The test of the 154.07 level in the first half of the day occurred as the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I refrained from buying the dollar. In the second half of the day, only weak consumer confidence and new home sales data could help the yen recover further.
The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes will also play a crucial role but are likely to favor dollar buyers. If the report points to continued tight monetary policy to curb inflation, the dollar will likely strengthen. The opinions of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members on this matter are particularly important. Hawkish statements from Fed officials, focusing on inflation risks, will strengthen confidence that the dollar will remain an attractive asset for investors and traders.
Meanwhile, the Japanese central bank maintains its low-interest-rate policy, keeping the substantial rate differential between the US and Japan intact. This difference drives capital inflows into US assets, adding pressure on the Japanese yen. For intraday trading, I will focus on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY at an entry point near 153.89 (green line on the chart), targeting 155.08 (thicker green line on the chart). At 155.08, I plan to exit purchases and open short positions, aiming for a pullback of 30-35 points. Growth in the pair can be expected as part of the ongoing upward trend.Note: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and beginning its upward movement.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the price tests 152.86 twice in succession while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and prompt an upward reversal, with expected growth toward 153.89 and 155.08.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after the price breaks below the 152.86 level (red line on the chart), which could trigger a rapid decline. The key target for sellers will be 151.80, where I will exit short positions and open long positions, expecting a rebound of 20-25 points. The higher the dollar rises, the greater the likelihood of renewed selling pressure on the yen due to capital outflows.Note: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and beginning its downward movement.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if the price tests 153.89 twice in succession while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This should cap the pair's upward potential and prompt a reversal toward 152.86 and 151.80.
Chart Key
Important Notes
Beginner Forex traders should exercise caution when deciding to enter the market. Before the release of key economic reports, it is often safer to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly deplete your deposit, especially if you trade large volumes without proper money management.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on short-term market conditions is generally an ineffective strategy for intraday traders.
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