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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Thursday consolidated above the 1.2611–1.2620 zone, suggesting further growth toward the 1.2709–1.2734 zone. This area is critical for the bears; losing it would signal a trend reversal, allowing the bulls to take control. A rejection from this zone would maintain the bearish trend and indicate a potential decline for the pair.
The wave structure remains clear. The most recent completed downward wave broke below the previous low, while the current upward wave has yet to exceed the prior peak. This confirms the continuation of the bearish trend. To indicate a reversal, the pair must return to the 1.2710 level and close above the prior resistance.
On Thursday, there were no significant threats to the U.S. dollar. However, the bulls began testing the 1.2611–1.2620 zone early in the day and managed to break through by the evening, improving their prospects. In my view, the overall market context does not favor a strong rise in the pound. The current movement appears to be a corrective wave that may conclude soon, potentially driving the pound below 1.2488. For a sustained rise in the pound and a corresponding dollar decline, fundamental shifts, such as changes in central bank policies or significant inflation reversals, would be required. Currently, no such drivers are evident, as both the U.S. and European economies remain on their current trajectories.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above 1.2620, but a bearish divergence appeared on the CCI indicator. A bearish divergence during a downtrend is a strong selling signal, suggesting that a decline toward 1.2432 could resume this week.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report
The latest COT report shows increased bullish sentiment among non-commercial traders. Long positions fell by 745, while short positions dropped by 11,711. Despite this, bulls maintain a strong advantage of 56,000 positions (120,000 long versus 64,000 short).
Nonetheless, the pound's downside potential remains intact, as COT data suggests strengthening bearish positions. Over the past three months, long positions increased from 102,000 to 120,000, while shorts rose from 55,000 to 64,000. I believe professional traders will continue reducing long positions or increasing shorts, as most factors favoring pound purchases have already played out. Chart analysis further supports the bearish outlook.
Economic Calendar for the U.S. and U.K.
Thursday's economic calendar features no significant events. As such, the market context is unlikely to influence trader sentiment today.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips
New short positions for the pair are possible if it fails to break the 1.2709–1.2734 zone, targeting 1.2611–1.2620 and below. Long positions could be considered if the pair closes above the 1.2611–1.2620 zone, with a target of 1.2709. Today, buying opportunities may arise from a rebound off the 1.2611–1.2620 zone.
Fibonacci levels are plotted from 1.3000 to 1.3432 on the hourly chart and from 1.2299 to 1.3432 on the 4-hour chart.
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