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On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair consolidated above the 323.6% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.0532. This move raises the possibility of further growth toward the next Fibonacci level of 261.8% at 1.0662, as previously discussed. However, the bulls will need to make considerable efforts to maintain the 1.0532 level. Yesterday, minimal news supported the euro. Today, the report on German inflation is the only notable data point, but it may not be sufficient for the bulls to sustain upward momentum. A close below 1.0532 could signal the conclusion of the corrective phase.
elow the low of the previous wave, while the new upward wave has not yet exceeded the prior peak. This confirms the continuation of the bearish trend. The bulls have lost control of the market, and regaining it will require significant effort. To break the bearish trend, the pair must rise above at least the 1.0611 level.
Although Thursday included a significant release of data, U.S. reports had little impact on trader sentiment. The dollar's decline began during the European session, in the absence of major data releases. By the time U.S. statistics were published, the dollar's decline had already tapered.
The GDP report for the third quarter, in its second estimate, remained at 2.8%. This strong figure could provide long-term support for the dollar, as the U.S. economy continues to outpace growth in Europe and the U.K. Meanwhile, durable goods orders fell slightly below expectations but not significantly so. In my view, yesterday's reports do not suggest further buying opportunities. Today's German inflation report could support the euro if it exceeds forecasts.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 127.2% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.0436, favoring the euro and initiating a new upward movement toward the 100.0% corrective level at 1.0603. Currently, no new divergences are detected on any indicator. A rebound from 1.0603 would favor the U.S. dollar, resuming the decline toward the 161.8% Fibonacci level at 1.0225.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report
In the latest reporting week, speculators opened 103 long positions and closed 14,113 short positions. Sentiment among the "Non-commercial" group shifted to bearish. Speculators now hold 160,000 long positions and 167,000 short positions.
For eight weeks, major players have been reducing euro positions. This suggests the onset of a new bearish trend or at least a strong global correction. The dollar's prior decline, driven by dovish Federal Reserve expectations, has already been accounted for. With few compelling reasons to sell the dollar, its continued strength appears more likely. Chart analysis also supports the continuation of a long-term bearish trend. Thus, I am preparing for a prolonged decline in the EUR/USD pair. The latest COT report does not indicate a shift to bullish sentiment.
Economic Calendar for the U.S. and Eurozone
Eurozone: German Consumer Price Index (13:00 UTC).The November 28 economic calendar includes only one significant entry, with a limited expected impact on market sentiment.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations
New short positions could be considered if the pair closes below 1.0532 on the hourly chart. Targets would then be set at 1.0420 and 1.0320. Long positions may become viable after a rebound from the 1.0532 level, targeting 1.0662.
Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.1003 to 1.1214 on the hourly chart and from 1.0603 to 1.1214 on the 4-hour chart.
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