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Analysis of Trades and Trading Advice for the British Pound
The test of the 1.2652 level occurred when the MACD indicator moved significantly below the zero line, limiting the pound's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell. Shortly after, another test of 1.2652 occurred when the MACD was in the oversold zone, enabling Scenario #2 to result in a 25-point rise. The lack of economic data supported buyers, enabling the instrument to recover toward the weekly high.
No significant economic data is expected in the second half of the day. It's worth noting that the Thanksgiving holiday in the US may influence market sentiment. Market participants often use holidays to analyze news and reassess their strategies, which can influence future decisions. This period also allows traders to adjust their positions based on the evolving economic environment. Today's reduced trading volumes may increase volatility due to lower liquidity, so exercise caution when making decisions in an unstable market.
For intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenario #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1:I plan to buy the pound today at the 1.2678 level (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.2725 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.2725, I will close long positions and initiate short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point move downward. Today's pound growth should only be considered part of a correction. It is important to ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise before buying.
Scenario #2:I also plan to buy the pound today if the 1.2643 level is tested twice consecutively, and the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This setup will likely limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. Growth toward resistance levels at 1.2678 and 1.2725 is expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1:I plan to sell the pound today after breaking below the 1.2643 level (red line on the chart), which will likely lead to a sharp decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.2599, where I will close short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point upward correction. Sellers are expected to become active if the pair approaches the daily high. It is important to ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline before selling.
Scenario #2:I also plan to sell the pound today if the 1.2678 level is tested twice consecutively, and the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This setup will likely limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward support levels at 1.2643 and 1.2599 is expected.
What's on the Chart:
Important Notes for Beginner Traders:
Forex beginners must exercise extreme caution when deciding to enter the market. Before significant fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially when trading large volumes.
Remember, a well-defined trading plan, such as the one outlined above, is crucial for success. Making impulsive trading decisions based on current market conditions is generally a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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